Empoli v Juve Stabia

18th2–29th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Empoli		Juve Stabia
15	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	5
11	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
364	Passes	525
42%	Possession %	58%
1.72	xG	1.28

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Juve Stabia 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.23

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Empoli -0.5

2.40Betano · fair 2.14 · qualifies at 2.21+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Empoli -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.40 with Betano — Empoli must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.14. The offered 2.40 implies only 42%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Empoli 1.18, Juve Stabia 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Empoli	34.3%	2.92	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	+1.0
Match result	Draw	28.9%	3.46	3.30 Dafabet	30.3%	-1.4
Match result	Juve Stabia	36.8%	2.72	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.0%	1.43	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.0%	3.33	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.3%	2.31	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.7%	1.76	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.3%	4.48	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-5.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.7%	1.29	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.7%	2.01	1.80 Betano	55.6%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.3%	1.99	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+2.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Empoli v Juve Stabia: too close to call

Our model makes Empoli 34% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 29% and Juve Stabia at 37%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Empoli against 1.23 for Juve Stabia — almost nothing to Juve Stabia on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Empoli and Juve Stabia
Empoli		Juve Stabia
11	Played	11
2-3-6	W-D-L	4-4-3
0.82	Pts / game	1.45
1.09	Goals for / game	1.09
1.73	Goals against / game	1.00
55%	Over 2.5	36%
64%	BTTS	45%
18%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	27%
1-1-3	Home record	2-1-2
1-2-3	Away record	2-3-1
D2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Empoli · Juve Stabia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	14.5
4.3	Shots on target	4.2
4.3	Corners	4.2
1.83	Cards	1.67
12.1	Fouls	12.7
44	Possession %	53
1.19	xG	1.29
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.1	Shots	13.8
5.7	Shots on target	3.8
5.4	Corners	5.8
2.14	Cards	1.83
14.0	Fouls	14.3
56	Possession %	47
1.97	xG	1.26
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Empoli	Metric	Juve Stabia
0.80	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.89	Expected goals (xG)	1.32 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
10.80	Total shots	13.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40 (better)	Corners	2.33
42.8	Possession %	52.0 (better)
356	Passes	363 (better)
	Tackles
13.20	Fouls	12.67 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Empoli wins: 0
Draws: 1
Juve Stabia wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Empoli v Juve Stabia2–22026-11-01
Empoli v Juve Stabia1–22026-02-11
Juve Stabia v Empoli2–02025-12-13

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5