Elche v Celta Vigo

18th0–011th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Elche		Celta Vigo
13	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	0
5	Corners	2
19	Fouls	21
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
653	Passes	320
66%	Possession %	34%
0.84	xG	0.34

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Elche 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.42

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Elche -0.25

2.50Bet365 · fair 2.24 · qualifies at 2.31+ · 1.93u

Why this price?

Back Elche -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Bet365 — Elche must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.24. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Elche 1.43, Celta Vigo 1.41.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Elche	37.2%	2.69	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+3.9
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.81	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	-3.6
Match result	Celta Vigo	36.5%	2.74	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.2%	1.28	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.8%	4.60	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-6.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.1%	1.85	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+6.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.9%	2.18	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-7.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.8%	3.14	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.2%	1.47	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.2%	1.72	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.8%	2.39	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-4.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Elche v Celta Vigo: too close to call

Our model makes Elche 37% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Celta Vigo at 37%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Elche against 1.42 for Celta Vigo — almost nothing to Elche on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Elche and Celta Vigo
Elche		Celta Vigo
12	Played	12
2-4-6	W-D-L	2-7-3
0.83	Pts / game	1.08
1.17	Goals for / game	0.83
1.67	Goals against / game	0.83
50%	Over 2.5	33%
50%	BTTS	33%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
42%	Failed to score	58%
0-1-5	Home record	2-3-2
2-3-1	Away record	0-4-1
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Elche · Celta Vigo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.1	Shots	12.0
3.6	Shots on target	4.0
4.7	Corners	2.8
3.17	Cards	1.67
12.6	Fouls	13.5
51	Possession %	46
1.25	xG	1.46
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.9	Shots	13.2
4.6	Shots on target	4.3
4.7	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
13.1	Fouls	13.2
49	Possession %	55
1.69	xG	0.89
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Elche	Metric	Celta Vigo
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.35 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.33
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
12.20	Total shots	14.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	4.40
48.4	Possession %	52.0 (better)
439	Passes	514 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	11.60 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Elche wins: 1
Draws: 1
Celta Vigo wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Elche v Celta Vigo0–02026-10-11
Celta Vigo v Elche3–12026-05-03
Elche v Celta Vigo2–12025-09-28

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5