Eibar v Mallorca

4th1–16th

14:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eibar		Mallorca
13	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	7
8	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	1
452	Passes	412
53%	Possession %	47%
2.49	xG	2.03

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Eibar 45%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.93

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Eibar	45.2%	2.21	2.62 Betano	38.2%	+7.0
Match result	Draw	29.3%	3.41	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-1.0
Match result	Mallorca	25.5%	3.92	2.87 Betano	34.8%	-9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.4%	1.51	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.6%	2.97	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.0%	2.56	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.0%	1.64	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.0%	5.26	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.0%	1.24	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.9%	2.23	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-10.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.1%	1.82	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+4.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eibar favoured against Mallorca

Our model makes Eibar 45% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 29% and Mallorca at 26%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Eibar against 0.93 for Mallorca — a clear edge to Eibar on expected output. A combined 2.25 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 2-0 9%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Eibar and Mallorca
Eibar		Mallorca
12	Played	12
7-2-3	W-D-L	6-4-2
1.92	Pts / game	1.83
1.75	Goals for / game	1.25
1.17	Goals against / game	0.58
58%	Over 2.5	25%
58%	BTTS	33%
33%	Clean sheets	50%
8%	Failed to score	33%
3-2-1	Home record	5-0-1
4-0-2	Away record	1-4-1
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eibar · Mallorca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	14.7
5.3	Shots on target	4.2
4.0	Corners	6.8
1.67	Cards	3.67
10.0	Fouls	16.5
51	Possession %	54
1.69	xG	1.81
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.8	Shots	11.3
6.2	Shots on target	3.8
7.2	Corners	3.8
4.33	Cards	2.50
13.3	Fouls	14.0
50	Possession %	46
1.88	xG	1.51
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eibar	Metric	Mallorca
3.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.80	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
1.14	Expected goals (xG)	1.80 (better)
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
11.40	Total shots	11.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners	5.40 (better)
40.4	Possession %	53.0 (better)
373	Passes	441 (better)
	Tackles
11.40 (better)	Fouls	14.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	3.60
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eibar wins: 0
Draws: 1
Mallorca wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Eibar v Mallorca1–12026-10-17

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5