Dynamo Dresden v 
FC Schalke 04
Match statistics
| Dynamo Dresden | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 579 | Passes | 521 |
| 53% | Possession % | 47% |
| 0.78 | xG | 0.74 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- FC Schalke 04 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.18 – 1.58
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Dynamo Dresden -0.5
Why this price?
Back Dynamo Dresden -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.55 with Bet365 — Dynamo Dresden must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 31%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.18. The offered 3.55 implies only 28%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.18, FC Schalke 04 1.58.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dynamo Dresden | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | +1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.84 | 3.75 Betano | 26.7% | -0.6 |
| Match result | FC Schalke 04 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | -0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -5.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | -8.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +5.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.60 BetVictor | 38.5% | -8.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | +5.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.53 William Hill | 65.4% | -9.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | +4.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Schalke 04 favoured against Dynamo Dresden
Our model makes Dynamo Dresden 28% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 26% and FC Schalke 04 at 46%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Dynamo Dresden against 1.58 for FC Schalke 04 — a clear edge to FC Schalke 04 on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Dynamo Dresden | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 9 |
| 3-2-6 | W-D-L | 1-3-5 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 0.67 |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 0.56 |
| 1.82 | Goals against / game | 1.22 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 44% |
| 55% | BTTS | 33% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 67% |
| 3-0-2 | Home record | 0-2-2 |
| 0-2-4 | Away record | 1-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dynamo Dresden · FC Schalke 04
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.0 | Shots | 10.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 2.4 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.87 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 52 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.47 | xG | 0.90 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.87 | Cards | 1.45 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 48 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.41 | xG | 1.75 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Dynamo Dresden | Metric | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.11 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.59 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Shots on target | 1.67 |
| 11.25 (better) | Total shots | 9.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 3.33 |
| 52.0 (better) | Possession % | 45.7 |
| 545 (better) | Passes | 394 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.75 (better) | Fouls | 11.67 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.25 | Yellow cards | 0.67 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Dynamo Dresden wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- FC Schalke 04 wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Dynamo Dresden v FC Schalke 042–02026-10-28
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