Dunkerque v Metz

10th1–17th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dunkerque		Metz
15	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	9
2	Corners	4
11	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
505	Passes	390
57%	Possession %	43%
1.60	xG	1.48

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Dunkerque 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.28

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Dunkerque

2.75William Hill · fair 2.53 · qualifies at 2.60+ · 1.25u

Why this price?

Back Dunkerque to win at 2.75 with William Hill.

Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.53. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 8.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.25 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Dunkerque 1.75, Metz 1.28.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.3%	1.66	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.7%	2.52	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.5
Match result	Dunkerque	47.9%	2.09	2.80 William Hill	35.7%	+12.2
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-3.2
Match result	Metz	27.6%	3.63	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-12.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.1%	1.23	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.9%	5.29	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.4%	1.71	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.6%	2.40	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.0%	2.78	2.80 Betano	35.7%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.0%	1.56	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dunkerque favoured against Metz

Our model makes Dunkerque 48% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Metz at 28%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Dunkerque against 1.28 for Metz — a clear edge to Dunkerque on expected output. A combined 3.03 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Dunkerque and Metz
Dunkerque		Metz
12	Played	12
4-3-5	W-D-L	4-5-3
1.25	Pts / game	1.42
1.42	Goals for / game	1.67
1.42	Goals against / game	1.58
42%	Over 2.5	58%
50%	BTTS	83%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
42%	Failed to score	17%
3-2-2	Home record	3-2-1
1-1-3	Away record	1-3-2
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dunkerque · Metz

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	13.2
3.4	Shots on target	5.2
4.8	Corners	4.8
1.65	Cards	2.00
12.4	Fouls	15.6
56	Possession %	53
1.21	xG	1.50
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	16.0
5.8	Shots on target	5.2
5.6	Corners	4.6
2.40	Cards	1.20
18.0	Fouls	14.0
44	Possession %	47
1.46	xG	1.92
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dunkerque	Metric	Metz
0.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.80
0.68	Expected goals (xG)	1.47 (better)
	Big chances
1.50	Shots on target	3.40 (better)
9.00	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.20 (better)
44.3	Possession %	53.8 (better)
415	Passes	457 (better)
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	12.60 (better)
2.50	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dunkerque wins: 0
Draws: 1
Metz wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Dunkerque v Metz1–12026-10-23

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5