Dunkerque v 
Guingamp
Match statistics
| Dunkerque | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 482 | Passes | 511 |
| 49% | Possession % | 51% |
| 1.81 | xG | 0.96 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Dunkerque 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.61 – 1.46
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Guingamp +0.25
Why this price?
Back Guingamp +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.07 with BetVictor — Guingamp starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.92. The offered 2.07 implies only 48%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.88 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Dunkerque 1.61, Guingamp 1.46.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dunkerque | 40.7% | 2.45 | 2.80 Betano | 35.7% | +5.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.0% | 3.99 | 3.60 Betfair | 27.8% | -2.7 |
| Match result | Guingamp | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.49 Dafabet | 40.2% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.5% | 5.41 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | -4.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.75 BetVictor | 36.4% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | -3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.57 William Hill | 63.7% | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | -2.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dunkerque favoured against Guingamp
Our model makes Dunkerque 41% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Guingamp at 34%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Dunkerque against 1.46 for Guingamp — a slight edge to Dunkerque on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Dunkerque | Guingamp | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-3-5 | W-D-L | 4-2-6 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 1.17 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.42 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 42% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 50% | BTTS | 50% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 42% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 3-2-2 | Home record | 3-1-2 |
| 1-1-3 | Away record | 1-1-4 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dunkerque · Guingamp
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.6 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.65 | Cards | 2.40 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 56 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.21 | xG | 1.32 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.2 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 1.60 |
| 18.0 | Fouls | 17.0 |
| 44 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.46 | xG | 1.38 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Dunkerque | Metric | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 2.75 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 9.75 | Total shots | 12.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 4.25 (better) |
| 48.0 (better) | Possession % | 47.8 |
| 427 | Passes | 449 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.25 (better) | Fouls | 14.00 |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Dunkerque wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Guingamp wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Dunkerque v Guingamp3–02026-11-06
- Dunkerque v Guingamp0–02026-02-06
- Guingamp v Dunkerque2–12025-09-23
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 28 | Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Nancy | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | +8 | 25 | Nancy won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +9 | 24 | Montpellier won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Reims | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | +9 | 21 | Reims won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +3 | 20 | PAU won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Dijon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 18 | Dijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Metz | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 17 | Metz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RED Star FC 93 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 | RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Annecy | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 | Annecy won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 | Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 14 | Guingamp won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 13 | Boulogne won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Rodez | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 | Rodez won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Nantes | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 | Nantes won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Clermont Foot | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 11 | Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Sochaux | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 | Sochaux won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 | Grenoble won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Laval | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Laval won 1 of the last 5 |