Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5LWDDW3rd2–2Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5DLLDW15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Djurgardens IF
Orgryte IS
15
Shots
10
8
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
4
7
Fouls
8
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
4
552
Passes
426
55%
Possession %
45%
1.39
xG
0.75
80%
13%
1 · Djurgardens IFXOrgryte IS · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
51%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Djurgardens IF 80%
Likely score
2-0 10%
Expected goals
2.91 – 0.80
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Djurgardens IF
79.8%
1.25
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-4.2
Match result
Draw
13.1%
7.65
8.00 Betfair
12.5%
+0.6
Match result
Orgryte IS
7.1%
14.04
16.00 Betfair
6.3%
+0.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.8%
1.13
1.11 Betano
90.1%
-1.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.2%
8.90
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
-1.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
71.6%
1.40
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
28.4%
3.53
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-0.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
50.8%
1.97
1.90 Betano
52.6%
-1.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
49.2%
2.03
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.5%
1.91
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+1.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.5%
2.10
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-3.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Djurgardens IF favoured against Orgryte IS
Our model makes Djurgardens IF 80% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 13% and Orgryte IS at 7%. The goal projection is 2.91 for Djurgardens IF against 0.80 for Orgryte IS — a commanding edge to Djurgardens IF on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Djurgardens IF is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 20% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Djurgardens IF
Metric
Orgryte IS
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.26 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.91
—
Big chances *
—
3.75 (better)
Shots on target
2.20
8.75 (better)
Total shots
7.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.50
Corners
3.40 (better)
46.8 (better)
Possession %
41.6
487 (better)
Passes
403
—
Tackles
—
9.75 (better)
Fouls
10.80
2.67
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25
Yellow cards
0.80 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Djurgardens IF v 
Orgryte IS