Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5LWDDW3rd2–1Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5LLLLL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Djurgardens IF
Degerfors IF
16
Shots
4
6
Shots on target
1
5
Corners
1
15
Fouls
17
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
612
Passes
435
59%
Possession %
41%
3.11
xG
0.32
71%
19%
1 · Djurgardens IFXDegerfors IF · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
45%
Model pick
Djurgardens IF 71%
Likely score
2-0 13%
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.70
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Djurgardens IF
70.9%
1.41
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-6.0
Match result
Draw
18.9%
5.29
5.80 Dafabet
17.2%
+1.7
Match result
Degerfors IF
10.1%
9.85
9.60 Dafabet
10.4%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.27
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-6.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.4%
4.68
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+3.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.9%
1.82
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-10.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.1%
2.22
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+8.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.6%
3.07
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-9.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.4%
1.48
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+7.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
45.1%
2.22
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
54.9%
1.82
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
+3.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Djurgardens IF favoured against Degerfors IF
Our model makes Djurgardens IF 71% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 19% and Degerfors IF at 10%. The goal projection is 2.18 for Djurgardens IF against 0.70 for Degerfors IF — a commanding edge to Djurgardens IF on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Djurgardens IF is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 13%
1-0 12%
3-0 10%
2-1 9%
1-1 9%
This season
Season records for Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Djurgardens IF
Metric
Degerfors IF
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.26 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.06
—
Big chances *
—
3.75 (better)
Shots on target
2.25
8.75
Total shots
9.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.50
Corners
5.25 (better)
46.8
Possession %
47.5 (better)
487 (better)
Passes
436
—
Tackles
—
9.75 (better)
Fouls
13.25
2.67
Offsides
2.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25
Yellow cards
1.25
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Djurgardens IF v 
Degerfors IF