Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka

2nd2–16th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dinamo Zagreb		HNK Rijeka
16	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	1
13	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
485	Passes	489
54%	Possession %	46%
1.54	xG	0.42

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Dinamo Zagreb 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.06

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Dinamo Zagreb -0.25

1.48Bet365 · fair 1.43 · qualifies at 1.47+ · 1.94u

Why this price?

Back Dinamo Zagreb -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.48 with Bet365 — Dinamo Zagreb must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 65% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.43. The offered 1.48 implies only 68%, so the price is 3.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.94 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.95, HNK Rijeka 1.06.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dinamo Zagreb	57.4%	1.74	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	22.8%	4.38	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	-1.0
Match result	HNK Rijeka	19.8%	5.05	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.7%	1.24	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.3%	5.19	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.9%	1.73	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.1%	2.38	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.5%	2.82	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.5%	1.55	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.6%	1.77	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.4%	2.31	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dinamo Zagreb favoured against HNK Rijeka

Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb 57% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 23% and HNK Rijeka at 20%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Dinamo Zagreb against 1.06 for HNK Rijeka — a substantial edge to Dinamo Zagreb on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka
Dinamo Zagreb		HNK Rijeka
11	Played	12
7-1-3	W-D-L	5-3-4
2.00	Pts / game	1.50
2.36	Goals for / game	1.58
1.36	Goals against / game	1.50
82%	Over 2.5	67%
73%	BTTS	75%
18%	Clean sheets	17%
9%	Failed to score	17%
5-0-0	Home record	4-1-0
2-1-3	Away record	1-2-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dinamo Zagreb · HNK Rijeka

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.2	Shots	11.3
5.7	Shots on target	3.8
5.8	Corners	5.2
1.33	Cards	2.40
12.5	Fouls	12.5
59	Possession %	56
2.23	xG	1.22
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	10.7
3.5	Shots on target	5.2
3.7	Corners	3.0
2.67	Cards	2.23
12.5	Fouls	10.7
41	Possession %	44
1.19	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dinamo Zagreb	Metric	HNK Rijeka
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
2.49 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.56
	Big chances
6.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.33
16.00 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.25 (better)	Corners	3.67
52.8	Possession %	56.7 (better)
466	Passes	520 (better)
	Tackles
14.75	Fouls	11.67 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dinamo Zagreb wins: 3
Draws: 2
HNK Rijeka wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.40
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 60%

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5