Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5LWDWW2nd2–0Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5LLWWL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Dinamo Bucuresti
Uta Arad
17
Shots
13
4
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
2
12
Fouls
12
2
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
0
528
Passes
376
58%
Possession %
42%
—
xG
—
64%
22%
14%
1 · Dinamo BucurestiXUta Arad · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Dinamo Bucuresti 64%
Likely score
2-0 12%
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.80
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Dinamo Bucuresti
63.7%
1.57
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-1.7
Match result
Draw
22.1%
4.53
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-1.8
Match result
Uta Arad
14.2%
7.03
6.00 BetVictor
16.7%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.5%
1.31
1.28 Betano
78.1%
-1.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.4%
4.26
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.9%
1.93
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-1.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.1%
2.08
2.00 Betano
50.0%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.7%
3.36
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.42
1.40 Betano
71.4%
-1.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.9%
2.09
1.91 Betano
52.4%
-4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
52.1%
1.92
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-1.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dinamo Bucuresti favoured against Uta Arad
Our model makes Dinamo Bucuresti 64% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 22% and Uta Arad at 14%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Dinamo Bucuresti against 0.80 for Uta Arad — a commanding edge to Dinamo Bucuresti on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Dinamo Bucuresti is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dinamo Bucuresti
Metric
Uta Arad
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
3.03 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.34
—
Big chances *
—
8.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.80
19.80 (better)
Total shots
16.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.40
Corners
8.75 (better)
55.0 (better)
Possession %
51.6
474 (better)
Passes
335
—
Tackles
—
11.00
Fouls
8.00 (better)
1.50
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
0.20
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Dinamo Bucuresti v 
Uta Arad