Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5LWDWW2nd2–0FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5DLLLW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Dinamo Bucuresti
FC Botosani
24
Shots
7
7
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
4
13
Fouls
11
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
0
410
Passes
334
56%
Possession %
44%
4.40
xG
0.28
65%
21%
14%
1 · Dinamo BucurestiXFC Botosani · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Dinamo Bucuresti 65%
Likely score
2-0 12%
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.82
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Dinamo Bucuresti
65.0%
1.54
1.44 William Hill
69.4%
-4.5
Match result
Draw
21.3%
4.70
—
—
—
Match result
FC Botosani
13.8%
7.27
6.25 Bet365
16.0%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.28
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-7.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
22.0%
4.55
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+2.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.0%
1.85
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-9.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
46.0%
2.17
2.35 Bet365
42.6%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
31.7%
3.16
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-10.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
68.3%
1.46
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+3.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.0%
2.04
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-8.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.0%
1.96
2.05 William Hill
48.8%
+2.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dinamo Bucuresti favoured against FC Botosani
Our model makes Dinamo Bucuresti 65% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 21% and FC Botosani at 14%. The goal projection is 2.02 for Dinamo Bucuresti against 0.82 for FC Botosani — a commanding edge to Dinamo Bucuresti on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Dinamo Bucuresti is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 12%
1-0 11%
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 8%
This season
Season records for Dinamo Bucuresti and FC Botosani
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dinamo Bucuresti
Metric
FC Botosani
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
2.68 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
2.38
—
Big chances *
—
8.25 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
18.75 (better)
Total shots
10.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.25 (better)
Corners
3.50
54.8 (better)
Possession %
54.3
490 (better)
Passes
461
—
Tackles
—
10.50 (better)
Fouls
11.25
1.33
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.75
0.33 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Dinamo Bucuresti v 
FC Botosani