Dijon v Rodez

6th1–213th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dijon		Rodez
18	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
10	Corners	3
11	Fouls	20
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	6
587	Passes	208
72%	Possession %	28%
1.59	xG	1.52

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Dijon 41%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.67

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Dijon -0.5

2.18Betano · fair 1.96 · qualifies at 2.02+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Dijon -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.18 with Betano — Dijon must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.96. The offered 2.18 implies only 46%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Dijon 1.81, Rodez 1.67.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dijon	41.3%	2.42	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-4.6
Match result	Draw	23.2%	4.31	4.05 Betano	24.7%	-1.5
Match result	Rodez	35.5%	2.82	3.30 William Hill	30.3%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.7%	1.15	1.18 Bet365	84.7%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.3%	7.51	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.6%	1.48	1.67 Betano	59.9%	+7.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.4%	3.08	2.52 Betano	39.7%	-7.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.0%	2.18	2.67 Betano	37.5%	+8.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.0%	1.85	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.4%	1.46	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+4.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.6%	3.16	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-7.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dijon v Rodez: too close to call

Our model makes Dijon 41% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 23% and Rodez at 36%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Dijon against 1.67 for Rodez — a slight edge to Dijon on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 5%

This season

Season records for Dijon and Rodez
Dijon		Rodez
12	Played	12
5-3-4	W-D-L	4-1-7
1.50	Pts / game	1.08
1.75	Goals for / game	1.42
1.58	Goals against / game	1.92
58%	Over 2.5	58%
83%	BTTS	50%
8%	Clean sheets	8%
8%	Failed to score	42%
3-0-3	Home record	2-1-3
2-3-1	Away record	2-0-4
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dijon · Rodez

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	12.8
4.8	Shots on target	4.0
4.8	Corners	5.6
0.60	Cards	2.00
16.6	Fouls	15.8
57	Possession %	34
1.77	xG	1.36
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	13.6
5.0	Shots on target	4.8
3.6	Corners	4.6
1.60	Cards	1.60
15.2	Fouls	13.2
43	Possession %	66
1.27	xG	1.35
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dijon	Metric	Rodez
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
2.05	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
12.25	Total shots	15.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.75	Corners	6.75 (better)
48.5 (better)	Possession %	44.5
460 (better)	Passes	366
	Tackles
15.75	Fouls	14.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dijon wins: 0
Draws: 0
Rodez wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Dijon v Rodez1–22026-10-24

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5