Derby v 
Wrexham
Match statistics
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 397 | Passes | 469 |
| 45% | Possession % | 55% |
| 0.56 | xG | 1.32 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Derby 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.50 – 1.41
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Wrexham +0.25
Why this price?
Back Wrexham +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.09 with Marathonbet — Wrexham starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 2.09 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Derby 1.50, Wrexham 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.75 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.43. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 9.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.84 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Derby 1.50, Wrexham 1.41.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Derby | 38.8% | 2.58 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +6.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.40 BetVictor | 29.4% | -3.3 |
| Match result | Wrexham | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.70 Betfair | 37.0% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | +4.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20.6% | 4.84 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -7.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +6.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -7.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +4.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | -9.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.80 William Hill | 55.6% | +3.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | -7.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Derby v Wrexham: too close to call
Our model makes Derby 39% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wrexham at 35%. The goal projection is 1.50 for Derby against 1.41 for Wrexham — almost nothing to Derby on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 2-4-9 | W-D-L | 4-6-5 |
| 0.67 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 0.93 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.33 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 60% | BTTS | 60% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1-2-5 | Home record | 3-3-2 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-3-3 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Derby · Wrexham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.13 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 45 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.06 | xG | 1.18 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 15.4 | Shots | 14.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 2.38 |
| 8.6 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 55 | Possession % | 54 |
| 2.04 | xG | 1.23 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Derby | Metric | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.96 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.76 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 (better) | Shots on target | 2.80 |
| 12.00 (better) | Total shots | 9.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Corners | 3.20 |
| 51.4 (better) | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 400 | Passes | 466 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.60 | Fouls | 10.80 (better) |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 | Yellow cards | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Derby wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Wrexham wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 100%
- Derby v Wrexham1–12026-10-10
- Derby v Wrexham1–22026-01-04
- Wrexham v Derby1–12025-09-27
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |