Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5LLLLL14th0–3Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5DWWLW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Degerfors IF
Vasteras SK FK
17
Shots
15
2
Shots on target
8
3
Corners
9
13
Fouls
10
3
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
4
463
Passes
484
49%
Possession %
51%
1.50
xG
1.58
28%
28%
44%
1 · Degerfors IFXVasteras SK FK · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK 44%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.42
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.3%
3.54
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.4%
2.20
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-4.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.6%
1.83
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
+2.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.1%
4.16
3.30 BetVictor
30.3%
-6.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
75.9%
1.32
1.34 Betano
74.6%
+1.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.5%
1.98
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-6.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.5%
2.02
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
+2.9
Match result
Degerfors IF
28.0%
3.57
2.80 Bet365
35.7%
-7.7
Match result
Draw
27.8%
3.59
3.35 Dafabet
29.9%
-2.0
Match result
Vasteras SK FK
44.1%
2.27
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+9.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.7%
1.39
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-5.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vasteras SK FK favoured against Degerfors IF
Our model makes Degerfors IF 28% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 28% and Vasteras SK FK at 44%. The goal projection is 1.08 for Degerfors IF against 1.42 for Vasteras SK FK — a clear edge to Vasteras SK FK on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 11%
1-2 9%
0-0 9%
0-2 8%
This season
Season records for Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Degerfors IF
Metric
Vasteras SK FK
0.60
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.40
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
1.35
Expected goals (xG)
1.69 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.50
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
11.25
Total shots
15.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
4.00
52.3 (better)
Possession %
44.3
526 (better)
Passes
415
—
Tackles
—
13.00 (better)
Fouls
14.25
2.50
Offsides
2.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Degerfors IF v 
Vasteras SK FK