Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF

14th1–213th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Degerfors IF		Kalmar FF
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
10	Corners	4
11	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
716	Passes	320
64%	Possession %	36%
0.96	xG	2.37

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Degerfors IF 40%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.06

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Degerfors IF -0.25

2.23Marathonbet · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.14+ · 1.46u

Why this price?

Back Degerfors IF -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.23 with Marathonbet — Degerfors IF must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.23 implies only 45%, so the price is 7.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.46 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Degerfors IF 1.25, Kalmar FF 1.06.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.4%	2.11	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-8.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.6%	1.90	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+2.6
Match result	Degerfors IF	39.9%	2.51	3.00 Betano	33.3%	+6.5
Match result	Draw	29.7%	3.37	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	-0.1
Match result	Kalmar FF	30.4%	3.29	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.9%	1.47	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.1%	3.12	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.7%	2.46	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-8.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.3%	1.69	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.3%	4.93	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-7.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.7%	1.25	1.29 Betano	77.5%	+2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Degerfors IF favoured against Kalmar FF

Our model makes Degerfors IF 40% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 30% and Kalmar FF at 30%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Degerfors IF against 1.06 for Kalmar FF — a slight edge to Degerfors IF on expected output. A combined 2.31 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF		Kalmar FF
28	Played	28
5-5-18	W-D-L	7-5-16
0.71	Pts / game	0.93
0.82	Goals for / game	0.86
1.71	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	46%
43%	BTTS	36%
11%	Clean sheets	18%
46%	Failed to score	54%
3-2-9	Home record	6-2-6
2-3-9	Away record	1-3-10
L5	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Degerfors IF · Kalmar FF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.4	Shots	11.4
2.9	Shots on target	3.4
4.3	Corners	4.9
1.57	Cards	0.57
15.3	Fouls	14.1
47	Possession %	48
1.05	xG	1.27
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	14.7
6.9	Shots on target	4.7
5.6	Corners	5.1
0.71	Cards	2.00
11.4	Fouls	14.3
53	Possession %	52
2.00	xG	1.09
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Degerfors IF	Metric	Kalmar FF
0.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.00
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.75
1.78	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.75 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
13.25 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.25 (better)	Corners	4.67
48.5	Possession %	50.3 (better)
461	Passes	487 (better)
	Tackles
12.75 (better)	Fouls	13.33
2.00	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	0.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Degerfors IF wins: 0
Draws: 0
Kalmar FF wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF1–22026-10-19
Kalmar FF v Degerfors IF2–12026-05-23

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5