Degerfors IF v Gais

14th1–29th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Degerfors IF		Gais
16	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	5
21	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
377	Passes	531
41%	Possession %	59%
1.75	xG	1.26

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Gais 48%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.88 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Degerfors IF	23.4%	4.28	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-5.6
Match result	Draw	28.7%	3.48	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+0.9
Match result	Gais	47.9%	2.09	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.8%	1.50	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-9.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.2%	3.01	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.6%	2.53	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-11.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.4%	1.66	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+9.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.4%	5.14	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.6%	1.24	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	+7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.6%	2.24	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.4%	1.81	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gais favoured against Degerfors IF

Our model makes Degerfors IF 23% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 29% and Gais at 48%. The goal projection is 0.88 for Degerfors IF against 1.38 for Gais — a clear edge to Gais on expected output. A combined 2.27 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 1-1 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Degerfors IF and Gais
Degerfors IF		Gais
28	Played	28
5-5-18	W-D-L	11-7-10
0.71	Pts / game	1.43
0.82	Goals for / game	1.29
1.71	Goals against / game	1.00
50%	Over 2.5	39%
43%	BTTS	39%
11%	Clean sheets	39%
46%	Failed to score	29%
3-2-9	Home record	6-5-3
2-3-9	Away record	5-2-7
L5	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Degerfors IF · Gais

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.4	Shots	13.7
2.9	Shots on target	3.6
4.3	Corners	5.0
1.57	Cards	2.29
15.3	Fouls	14.4
47	Possession %	50
1.05	xG	1.15
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	13.9
6.9	Shots on target	4.9
5.6	Corners	5.9
0.71	Cards	1.57
11.4	Fouls	13.9
53	Possession %	50
2.00	xG	1.48
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Degerfors IF	Metric	Gais
0.60	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.07	Expected goals (xG)	1.34 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
12.75	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.40
50.8	Possession %	51.4 (better)
506 (better)	Passes	473
	Tackles
12.75 (better)	Fouls	14.40
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Degerfors IF wins: 0
Draws: 1
Gais wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Degerfors IF v Gais1–22026-11-07
Gais v Degerfors IF1–12026-05-16
Degerfors IF v Gais0–32025-07-19

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5