Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo

13th3–017th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Defensa Y Justicia		San Lorenzo
18	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	5
3	Corners	8
13	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
387	Passes	341
51%	Possession %	49%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 58%
Over 2.5: 30%
Over 3.5: 13%
Both score: 39%

Model pick: Defensa Y Justicia 37%
Likely score: 0-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.88

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

San Lorenzo

4.18Pinnacle · fair 3.40 · qualifies at 3.67+ · 1.81u

Why this price?

Back San Lorenzo to win at 4.18 with Pinnacle.

Our model puts the chance at 29%, which is a fair price of 3.40. The offered 4.18 implies only 24%, so the price is 23.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.04, San Lorenzo 0.89.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Defensa Y Justicia	37.5%	2.67	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-8.0
Match result	Draw	33.1%	3.02	3.13 BetVictor	31.9%	+1.1
Match result	San Lorenzo	29.4%	3.40	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	+5.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	58.1%	1.72	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	41.9%	2.38	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	30.2%	3.31	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	69.8%	1.43	1.53 Betano	65.4%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	12.9%	7.74	5.40 BetVictor	18.5%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	87.1%	1.15	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	38.7%	2.58	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-5.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	61.3%	1.63	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+3.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Defensa Y Justicia favoured against San Lorenzo

Our model makes Defensa Y Justicia 37% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 33% and San Lorenzo at 29%. The goal projection is 1.04 for Defensa Y Justicia against 0.88 for San Lorenzo — a slight edge to Defensa Y Justicia on expected output. A combined 1.92 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 30% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 15%; 1-0 14%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Defensa Y Justicia and San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia		San Lorenzo
32	Played	33
12-11-9	W-D-L	10-12-11
1.47	Pts / game	1.27
1.22	Goals for / game	0.73
1.13	Goals against / game	0.94
41%	Over 2.5	18%
53%	BTTS	30%
28%	Clean sheets	45%
28%	Failed to score	42%
6-7-3	Home record	7-3-6
6-4-6	Away record	3-9-5
L1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Defensa Y Justicia · San Lorenzo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.2	Shots	11.6
5.3	Shots on target	3.9
3.7	Corners	4.1
2.17	Cards	3.00
11.7	Fouls	14.6
51	Possession %	43
1.22	xG	0.95
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	13.0
5.5	Shots on target	4.4
7.3	Corners	4.9
2.83	Cards	3.14
11.0	Fouls	13.9
49	Possession %	57
1.41	xG	1.22
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Defensa Y Justicia	Metric	San Lorenzo
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
0.80	Goals conceded	0.80
1.07 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.74
	Big chances
4.60 (better)	Shots on target	2.60
11.60 (better)	Total shots	9.80
	Touches in opp. box
3.20 (better)	Corners	3.00
48.6 (better)	Possession %	42.6
398 (better)	Passes	327
	Tackles
14.80	Fouls	11.20 (better)
3.00	Offsides	0.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Defensa Y Justicia wins: 2
Draws: 0
San Lorenzo wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 50%

Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo3–02026-10-03
San Lorenzo v Defensa Y Justicia2–52026-03-16

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5