Debreceni VSC v 
Zalaegerszegi TE
Match statistics
| Debreceni VSC | Zalaegerszegi TE | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 400 | Passes | 362 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| 1.27 | xG | 1.01 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Debreceni VSC 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.56 – 1.22
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Debreceni VSC -0.25
Why this price?
Back Debreceni VSC -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with Bet365 — Debreceni VSC must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.65. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Debreceni VSC 1.56, Zalaegerszegi TE 1.22.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Debreceni VSC | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.90 Dafabet | 52.6% | -8.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.4% | 3.79 | 3.85 Betano | 26.0% | +0.4 |
| Match result | Zalaegerszegi TE | 29.2% | 3.42 | 3.90 Betano | 25.6% | +3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.2% | 1.30 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -6.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.8% | 4.38 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -11.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +6.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -11.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +6.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -8.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.45 William Hill | 40.8% | +2.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Debreceni VSC favoured against Zalaegerszegi TE
Our model makes Debreceni VSC 44% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 26% and Zalaegerszegi TE at 29%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Debreceni VSC against 1.22 for Zalaegerszegi TE — a clear edge to Debreceni VSC on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Debreceni VSC | Zalaegerszegi TE | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 6-4-3 | W-D-L | 4-1-8 |
| 1.69 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.85 | Goals for / game | 1.31 |
| 1.38 | Goals against / game | 1.85 |
| 54% | Over 2.5 | 69% |
| 62% | BTTS | 38% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 46% |
| 3-2-2 | Home record | 4-1-1 |
| 3-2-1 | Away record | 0-0-7 |
| W4 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Debreceni VSC · Zalaegerszegi TE
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.6 | Shots | 14.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 3.20 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 15.2 |
| 57 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.69 | xG | 1.68 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.8 | Shots | 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 3.03 |
| 14.6 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 43 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.12 | xG | 0.93 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Debreceni VSC | Metric | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.56 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 2.75 |
| 12.00 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Corners | 4.25 |
| 50.3 (better) | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 364 | Passes | 389 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.33 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.50 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.33 | Yellow cards | 1.75 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Debreceni VSC wins
- 2
- Draws
- 2
- Zalaegerszegi TE wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 75%
- Both score
- 75%
- Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE3–02026-10-18
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Debreceni VSC1–12026-02-22
- Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE2–12025-11-02
- Zalaegerszegi TE v Debreceni VSC3–32025-07-26
Hungarian NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 24 | Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Ferencvarosi TC | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | +12 | 23 | Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +7 | 23 | Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Debreceni VSC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +6 | 22 | Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Paks | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 20 | Paks won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 18 | Ujpest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Vasas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 16 | Vasas won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 | Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 13 | Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 13 | MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Kisvarda FC | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 12 | Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 | Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5 |