Predicted Edge

De Treffers v Heracles

De Treffers won 1 of the last 11–0

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
De Treffers Heracles
17Shots18
10Shots on target3
6Corners10
13Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
2Offsides1
247Passes445
36%Possession %64%
—xG—
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
68%
Model pick
De Treffers 54%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultDe Treffers54.0%1.856.40 Dafabet15.6%+38.3
Match resultDraw21.3%4.705.00 Dafabet20.0%+1.3
Match resultHeracles24.8%4.041.53 Dafabet65.4%-40.6
Total goalsOver 1.588.2%1.131.14 Bet36587.7%+0.5
Total goalsUnder 1.511.8%8.506.50 Betfair15.4%-3.6
Total goalsOver 2.570.4%1.421.44 Bet36569.4%+1.0
Total goalsUnder 2.529.6%3.382.88 Betfair34.7%-5.1
Total goalsOver 3.549.3%2.032.10 Betfair47.6%+1.7
Total goalsUnder 3.550.7%1.971.75 Betano57.1%-6.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes68.4%1.461.62 Bet36561.7%+6.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No31.6%3.172.38 Betfair42.0%-10.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

De Treffers favoured against Heracles

Our model makes De Treffers 54% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 21% and Heracles at 25%. The goal projection is 2.19 for De Treffers against 1.45 for Heracles — a substantial edge to De Treffers on expected output. A combined 3.64 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 9%
1-1 9%
3-1 7%
2-2 7%
2-0 6%

This season

Season records for De Treffers and Heracles
De Treffers Heracles
1Played—
1-0-0W-D-L—
3.00Pts / game—
1.00Goals for / game—
0.00Goals against / game—
0%Over 2.5—
0%BTTS—
100%Clean sheets—
0%Failed to score—
1-0-0Home record—
0-0-0Away record—
W1Streak—

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. De Treffers · Heracles

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0Shots18.0
10.0Shots on target3.0
6.0Corners10.0
4.00Cards5.00
13.0Fouls13.0
36Possession %64
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.0Shots17.0
3.0Shots on target10.0
10.0Corners6.0
5.00Cards4.00
13.0Fouls13.0
64Possession %36
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
De TreffersMetricHeracles
3.00 (better)Goals scored2.40
1.20Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)2.36
Big chances
Shots on target8.60
Total shots23.80
Touches in opp. box
Corners9.00
Possession %55.2
Passes403
Tackles
Fouls11.80
Offsides2.75
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.75
Red cards0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
De Treffers wins
1
Draws
0
Heracles wins
0
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%