Dalian Zhixing won 5 of the last 5WWWWW4th3–1Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5DWLDD13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Dalian Zhixing
Sichuan Jiuniu
24
Shots
13
11
Shots on target
1
10
Corners
9
11
Fouls
9
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
344
Passes
431
43%
Possession %
57%
2.36
xG
0.85
46%
25%
28%
1 · Dalian ZhixingXSichuan Jiuniu · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Dalian Zhixing 46%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.23
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Dalian Zhixing
46.4%
2.16
1.72 Dafabet
58.1%
-11.8
Match result
Draw
25.5%
3.93
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
+1.1
Match result
Sichuan Jiuniu
28.2%
3.55
4.60 BetVictor
21.7%
+6.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.7%
1.27
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.3%
4.70
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.9%
1.82
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-6.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.1%
2.22
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.5%
3.08
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.5%
1.48
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.7%
1.73
1.65 William Hill
60.6%
-2.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.3%
2.37
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+0.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Dalian Zhixing favoured against Sichuan Jiuniu
Our model makes Dalian Zhixing 46% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sichuan Jiuniu at 28%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Dalian Zhixing against 1.23 for Sichuan Jiuniu — a clear edge to Dalian Zhixing on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 9%
2-0 8%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for Dalian Zhixing and Sichuan Jiuniu
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dalian Zhixing
Metric
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.20
Goals scored
1.20
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
0.97
Expected goals (xG)
1.33 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
4.60 (better)
11.75
Total shots
14.20 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.25 (better)
Corners
3.40
47.8 (better)
Possession %
46.8
376 (better)
Passes
351
—
Tackles
—
12.00 (better)
Fouls
15.20
4.25
Offsides
1.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
0.50
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Dalian Zhixing v 
Sichuan Jiuniu