Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5WDWWW3rd3–2Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5DDWLW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Daejeon Citizen
Gwangju FC
16
Shots
11
5
Shots on target
6
9
Corners
3
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
60%
Possession %
40%
—
xG
—
67%
19%
14%
1 · Daejeon CitizenXGwangju FC · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Daejeon Citizen 67%
Likely score
2-0 10%
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.97
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Daejeon Citizen
66.5%
1.50
1.44 Dafabet
69.4%
-2.9
Match result
Draw
19.3%
5.17
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
-0.7
Match result
Gwangju FC
14.1%
7.08
7.50 BetVictor
13.3%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.0%
1.19
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.0%
6.24
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-4.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.1%
1.58
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-0.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.9%
2.71
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-3.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
40.9%
2.44
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-1.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
59.1%
1.69
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-4.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.1%
1.78
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-0.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.9%
2.28
2.00 William Hill
50.0%
-6.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Daejeon Citizen favoured against Gwangju FC
Our model makes Daejeon Citizen 67% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 19% and Gwangju FC at 14%. The goal projection is 2.28 for Daejeon Citizen against 0.97 for Gwangju FC — a commanding edge to Daejeon Citizen on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Daejeon Citizen is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Daejeon Citizen
Metric
Gwangju FC
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
16.20 (better)
Total shots
12.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60 (better)
Corners
2.00
57.2 (better)
Possession %
42.8
492 (better)
Passes
438
—
Tackles
—
11.80
Fouls
9.75 (better)
1.00
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40 (better)
Yellow cards
1.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Daejeon Citizen v 
Gwangju FC