Cyprus v Latvia

2–1

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cyprus		Latvia
19	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	1
7	Corners	3
10	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
600	Passes	385
62%	Possession %	38%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 51%
Over 2.5: 24%
Over 3.5: 9%
Both score: 33%

Model pick: Draw 36%
Likely score: 0-0 19%
Expected goals: 0.84 – 0.85

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

1.75Betfair · fair 1.60 · qualifies at 1.67+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with Betfair — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 76% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.60. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cyprus 0.84, Latvia 0.85.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Lost

Free pick

Draw

3.60Betfair · fair 3.40 · qualifies at 3.51+ · 0.56u

Why this price?

Back the draw at 3.60 with Betfair.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.40. The offered 3.60 implies only 28%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.56 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cyprus 0.84, Latvia 0.85.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cyprus	32.0%	3.13	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-25.8
Match result	Draw	35.8%	2.80	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+8.0
Match result	Latvia	32.3%	3.10	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+16.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	51.1%	1.96	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-22.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	48.9%	2.05	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+18.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	24.0%	4.17	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-23.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	76.0%	1.32	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+18.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	9.2%	10.92	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-15.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	90.8%	1.10	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	+12.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	33.3%	3.00	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-12.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	66.7%	1.50	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	+11.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cyprus v Latvia: too close to call

Our model makes Cyprus 32% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 36% and Latvia at 32%. The goal projection is 0.84 for Cyprus against 0.85 for Latvia — almost nothing to Latvia on expected output. A combined 1.69 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 24% and both teams to score at 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 19%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 19%; 0-1 15%; 1-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Cyprus and Latvia
Cyprus		Latvia
4	Played	4
2-1-1	W-D-L	0-1-3
1.75	Pts / game	0.25
1.25	Goals for / game	0.50
0.75	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	50%
50%	Clean sheets	25%
25%	Failed to score	50%
2-0-0	Home record	0-1-1
0-1-1	Away record	0-0-2
W2	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cyprus · Latvia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	9.8
5.0	Shots on target	1.0
5.0	Corners	3.5
2.50	Cards	1.50
8.8	Fouls	10.8
50	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	16.3
2.5	Shots on target	5.5
6.5	Corners	7.5
2.00	Cards	2.00
10.3	Fouls	9.8
51	Possession %	59
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cyprus	Metric	Latvia
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
1.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	2.00
14.67 (better)	Total shots	9.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)	Corners	5.00
54.0 (better)	Possession %	45.0
415 (better)	Passes	361
	Tackles
7.75 (better)	Fouls	12.67
3.00	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cyprus wins: 1
Draws: 1
Latvia wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Cyprus v Latvia2–12026-10-05
Latvia v Cyprus0–02026-09-28