Predicted Edge

Cuarte v Girona

Cuarte won 0 of the last 10–2Girona won 2 of the last 58th
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Girona 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCuarte26.0%3.8519.00 William Hill5.3%+20.7
Match resultDraw26.3%3.818.00 Dafabet12.5%+13.8
Match resultGirona47.7%2.101.18 Betano84.7%-37.0
Total goalsOver 1.575.4%1.331.16 Betano86.2%-10.8
Total goalsUnder 1.524.6%4.065.50 Bet36518.2%+6.4
Total goalsOver 2.550.2%1.991.57 Bet36563.7%-13.5
Total goalsUnder 2.549.8%2.012.55 Betfair39.2%+10.6
Total goalsOver 3.528.2%3.552.38 Betfair42.0%-13.8
Total goalsUnder 3.571.8%1.391.62 Bet36561.7%+10.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.6%1.862.50 Bet36540.0%+13.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No46.4%2.161.57 William Hill63.7%-17.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Girona favoured against Cuarte

Our model makes Cuarte 26% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Girona at 48%. The goal projection is 1.10 for Cuarte against 1.58 for Girona — a clear edge to Girona on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 10%
1-2 9%
0-2 9%
0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Cuarte and Girona
Cuarte Girona
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L6-3-4
0.00Pts / game1.62
0.00Goals for / game1.69
2.00Goals against / game0.92
0%Over 2.538%
0%BTTS54%
0%Clean sheets31%
100%Failed to score23%
0-0-1Home record4-2-2
0-0-0Away record2-1-2
L1StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cuarte · Girona

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots14.6
—Shots on target4.3
—Corners4.0
—Cards2.14
—Fouls11.6
—Possession %51
—xG1.47
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots10.9
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners4.4
—Cards3.71
—Fouls17.3
—Possession %49
—xG0.85
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CuarteMetricGirona
1.60 (better)Goals scored1.40
1.60Goals conceded0.40 (better)
Expected goals (xG)1.47
Big chances
Shots on target4.60
Total shots14.40
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.40
Possession %49.6
Passes432
Tackles
Fouls11.40
Offsides1.60
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.20
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Cuarte wins
0
Draws
0
Girona wins
1
Goals / game
2.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%