Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo

3rd2–010th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cruzeiro		Sao Paulo
22	Shots	19
9	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	8
12	Fouls	20
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
472	Passes	386
54%	Possession %	46%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Cruzeiro 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.15

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Sao Paulo

4.10Bet365 · fair 3.91 · qualifies at 4.03+ · 0.40u

Why this price?

Back Sao Paulo to win at 4.10 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 24%; we judge it at 26%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.91. The offered 4.10 implies only 24%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.40 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cruzeiro 1.49, Sao Paulo 1.15.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cruzeiro	44.3%	2.26	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-7.0
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.67	3.80 Betano	26.3%	+0.9
Match result	Sao Paulo	28.5%	3.51	4.85 Betano	20.6%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.6%	1.34	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.4%	3.94	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.9%	2.04	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.96	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.1%	3.69	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.9%	1.37	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.5%	1.87	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.5%	2.15	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-3.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cruzeiro favoured against Sao Paulo

Our model makes Cruzeiro 44% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 27% and Sao Paulo at 28%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Cruzeiro against 1.15 for Sao Paulo — a clear edge to Cruzeiro on expected output. A combined 2.63 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro		Sao Paulo
34	Played	34
18-6-10	W-D-L	12-8-14
1.76	Pts / game	1.29
1.62	Goals for / game	1.15
1.41	Goals against / game	1.15
65%	Over 2.5	38%
68%	BTTS	56%
24%	Clean sheets	24%
12%	Failed to score	24%
10-4-3	Home record	10-4-3
8-2-7	Away record	2-4-11
W4	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cruzeiro · Sao Paulo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	16.6
7.4	Shots on target	4.7
5.4	Corners	7.9
2.57	Cards	2.57
13.7	Fouls	14.1
54	Possession %	52
2.29	xG	1.37
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6	Shots	15.0
5.1	Shots on target	4.1
7.3	Corners	5.3
1.77	Cards	2.90
14.7	Fouls	13.0
46	Possession %	48
1.49	xG	1.08
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cruzeiro	Metric	Sao Paulo
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.80	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.80 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.54
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
12.80 (better)	Total shots	12.20
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	6.20 (better)
51.4 (better)	Possession %	50.4
476	Passes	476
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	12.40 (better)
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.20 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cruzeiro wins: 2
Draws: 0
Sao Paulo wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo2–02026-10-08
Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro4–12026-04-04
Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo1–02025-08-31

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5