Crowborough Athletic v Wimborne Town

1–2

14:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Crowborough Athletic 43%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.34

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Crowborough Athletic	42.8%	2.34	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.89	—	—	—
Match result	Wimborne Town	31.5%	3.17	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.9%	1.25	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.1%	4.98	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.4%	1.77	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.6%	2.29	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.0%	2.94	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.0%	1.52	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.7%	1.68	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.3%	2.48	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crowborough Athletic favoured against Wimborne Town

Our model makes Crowborough Athletic 43% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Wimborne Town at 32%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Crowborough Athletic against 1.34 for Wimborne Town — a clear edge to Crowborough Athletic on expected output. A combined 2.95 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Crowborough Athletic and Wimborne Town
Crowborough Athletic		Wimborne Town
5	Played	7
2-2-1	W-D-L	3-4-0
1.60	Pts / game	1.86
2.20	Goals for / game	1.00
1.80	Goals against / game	0.43
80%	Over 2.5	14%
100%	BTTS	43%
0%	Clean sheets	57%
0%	Failed to score	29%
1-1-1	Home record	2-2-0
1-1-0	Away record	1-2-0
L1	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crowborough Athletic · Wimborne Town

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	8.0
—	Shots on target	5.0
—	Corners	4.0
—	Cards	5.00
—	Fouls	9.0
—	Possession %	59
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	12.0
—	Shots on target	2.0
—	Corners	4.0
—	Cards	2.00
—	Fouls	12.0
—	Possession %	41
—	xG	—
—	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crowborough Athletic	Metric	Wimborne Town
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.75
2.20	Goals conceded	0.75 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crowborough Athletic wins: 0
Draws: 0
Wimborne Town wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Crowborough Athletic v Wimborne Town1–22026-10-03