Crewe v Rochdale

4th3–220th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crewe		Rochdale
10	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	7
7	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
371	Passes	559
40%	Possession %	60%
1.53	xG	0.89

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Crewe 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Crewe	46.9%	2.13	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-5.7
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.67	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+0.9
Match result	Rochdale	25.8%	3.87	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.5%	1.38	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.5%	3.64	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.4%	2.15	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-7.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.6%	1.87	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.9%	4.01	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.1%	1.33	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.7%	1.97	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.3%	2.03	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crewe favoured against Rochdale

Our model makes Crewe 47% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 27% and Rochdale at 26%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Crewe against 1.04 for Rochdale — a clear edge to Crewe on expected output. A combined 2.53 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 9%

This season

Season records for Crewe and Rochdale
Crewe		Rochdale
14	Played	14
5-7-2	W-D-L	4-3-7
1.57	Pts / game	1.07
1.21	Goals for / game	1.21
1.21	Goals against / game	1.86
29%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	50%
29%	Clean sheets	29%
14%	Failed to score	29%
3-4-0	Home record	3-1-3
2-3-2	Away record	1-2-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crewe · Rochdale

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.9	Shots	11.6
2.9	Shots on target	3.7
3.0	Corners	5.7
1.43	Cards	1.29
10.7	Fouls	10.9
45	Possession %	55
1.03	xG	0.94
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.1	Shots	16.9
3.4	Shots on target	5.4
4.4	Corners	4.7
1.57	Cards	1.71
13.1	Fouls	11.0
55	Possession %	45
1.19	xG	2.21
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crewe	Metric	Rochdale
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.61 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.82
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.20 (better)
9.40	Total shots	11.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	5.00
49.6	Possession %	51.4 (better)
365	Passes	491 (better)
	Tackles
14.20	Fouls	10.20 (better)
3.20	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	0.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crewe wins: 1
Draws: 0
Rochdale wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Crewe v Rochdale3–22026-10-17

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5