Crewe v 
Bristol Rovers
Match statistics
| Crewe | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 287 | Passes | 295 |
| 49% | Possession % | 51% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Crewe 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.29 – 1.22
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 1.5
Why this price?
Back under 1.5 goals at 4.33 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 28%, which is a fair price of 3.59. The offered 4.33 implies only 23%, so the price is 20.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Crewe 1.29, Bristol Rovers 1.22.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Crewe
Why this price?
Back Crewe to win at 2.98 with Pinnacle.
Our model puts the chance at 37%, which is a fair price of 2.68. The offered 2.98 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.42 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Crewe 1.29, Bristol Rovers 1.22.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.8% | 3.59 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | -7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | +4.2 |
| Match result | Crewe | 37.3% | 2.68 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +5.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.60 Betfair | 27.8% | +0.7 |
| Match result | Bristol Rovers | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.55 Bet365 | 39.2% | -5.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -8.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.2% | 2.07 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +4.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Crewe v Bristol Rovers: too close to call
Our model makes Crewe 37% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 28% and Bristol Rovers at 34%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Crewe against 1.22 for Bristol Rovers — almost nothing to Crewe on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Crewe | Bristol Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-7-2 | W-D-L | 5-1-8 |
| 1.57 | Pts / game | 1.14 |
| 1.21 | Goals for / game | 1.21 |
| 1.21 | Goals against / game | 1.64 |
| 29% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 64% | BTTS | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
| 3-4-0 | Home record | 4-1-2 |
| 2-3-2 | Away record | 1-0-6 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crewe · Bristol Rovers
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.9 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 2.29 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 15.6 |
| 45 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.03 | xG | 1.34 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.1 | Shots | 12.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 55 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.19 | xG | 1.68 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Crewe | Metric | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.50 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 4.40 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 13.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 | Corners | 5.60 (better) |
| 49.4 (better) | Possession % | 46.4 |
| 378 (better) | Passes | 297 |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.00 | Fouls | 11.80 (better) |
| 3.80 | Offsides | 3.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Crewe wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Bristol Rovers wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Crewe v Bristol Rovers3–12026-10-03
- Bristol Rovers v Crewe2–12026-03-07
- Crewe v Bristol Rovers1–12025-12-19
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |