Crewe v Barnet

4th1–12nd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crewe		Barnet
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	5
13	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	2
285	Passes	300
49%	Possession %	51%
0.86	xG	0.51

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Barnet 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.62

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Barnet +0.25

1.90Bet365 · fair 1.70 · qualifies at 1.75+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Barnet +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.90 with Bet365 — Barnet starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 59%; we judge it at 59%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.70. The offered 1.90 implies only 53%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Crewe 1.52, Barnet 1.62.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Crewe	35.5%	2.82	3.10 William Hill	32.3%	+3.2
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.05	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-2.0
Match result	Barnet	39.8%	2.51	2.23 Dafabet	44.8%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.7%	1.21	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.3%	5.77	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.8%	1.64	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.2%	2.55	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-2.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.5%	2.60	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.5%	1.63	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.3%	1.58	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.7%	2.72	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-2.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crewe v Barnet: too close to call

Our model makes Crewe 35% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 25% and Barnet at 40%. The goal projection is 1.52 for Crewe against 1.62 for Barnet — a slight edge to Barnet on expected output. A combined 3.14 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Crewe and Barnet
Crewe		Barnet
14	Played	13
5-7-2	W-D-L	7-5-1
1.57	Pts / game	2.00
1.21	Goals for / game	2.15
1.21	Goals against / game	1.38
29%	Over 2.5	77%
64%	BTTS	100%
29%	Clean sheets	0%
14%	Failed to score	0%
3-4-0	Home record	4-2-1
2-3-2	Away record	3-3-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crewe · Barnet

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.9	Shots	15.2
2.9	Shots on target	4.5
3.0	Corners	7.0
1.43	Cards	2.00
10.7	Fouls	11.7
45	Possession %	58
1.03	xG	1.88
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.1	Shots	12.7
3.4	Shots on target	3.7
4.4	Corners	3.8
1.57	Cards	2.33
13.1	Fouls	11.5
55	Possession %	42
1.19	xG	1.45
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crewe	Metric	Barnet
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.50
1.40	Goals conceded	1.25 (better)
1.58	Expected goals (xG)	3.17 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	5.50 (better)
11.00	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	6.25 (better)
46.2	Possession %	59.5 (better)
362	Passes	418 (better)
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	10.50
1.60	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crewe wins: 0
Draws: 2
Barnet wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 100%

Crewe v Barnet1–12026-10-31
Barnet v Crewe1–12026-02-03
Crewe v Barnet1–22025-09-13

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5