Cray Wanderers won 2 of the last 5DDDWW1–12–2 aet, 4–3 pensBedford Town won 2 of the last 5DDWDW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Cray Wanderers
Bedford Town
9
Shots
7
4
Shots on target
2
9
Corners
6
—
Fouls
—
5
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
54%
Possession %
46%
—
xG
—
42%
28%
30%
1 · Cray WanderersXBedford Town · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Cray Wanderers 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.16
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Cray Wanderers
42.0%
2.38
2.70 Dafabet
37.0%
+5.0
Match result
Draw
27.6%
3.63
4.00 Dafabet
25.0%
+2.6
Match result
Bedford Town
30.4%
3.29
2.38 BetVictor
42.0%
-11.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.4%
1.36
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-9.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.6%
3.75
4.33 BetVictor
23.1%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.5%
2.11
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-12.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.5%
1.90
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
+6.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.8%
3.87
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
-11.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.2%
1.35
1.44 BetVictor
69.4%
+4.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.6%
1.90
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-11.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.4%
2.11
2.30 BetVictor
43.5%
+3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cray Wanderers favoured against Bedford Town
Our model makes Cray Wanderers 42% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 28% and Bedford Town at 30%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Cray Wanderers against 1.16 for Bedford Town — a slight edge to Cray Wanderers on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-0 8%
0-1 8%
This season
Season records for Cray Wanderers and Bedford Town
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cray Wanderers
Metric
Bedford Town
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
8.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
18.00 (better)
Total shots
9.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
3.50
57.0 (better)
Possession %
43.0
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.00
Yellow cards
2.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Cray Wanderers v 
Bedford Town