Crawley Town v Shrewsbury

24th2–315th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crawley Town		Shrewsbury
12	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	9
4	Corners	2
8	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
386	Passes	273
58%	Possession %	42%
1.42	xG	1.78

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 41%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Crawley Town 39%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.08

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Shrewsbury +0.25

2.08Bet365 · fair 1.87 · qualifies at 1.93+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Shrewsbury +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.08 with Bet365 — Shrewsbury starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 2.08 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Crawley Town 1.25, Shrewsbury 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Crawley Town	39.5%	2.53	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	+5.6
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.40	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+0.8
Match result	Shrewsbury	31.1%	3.21	2.49 Dafabet	40.2%	-9.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.1%	1.47	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.9%	3.13	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+5.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.0%	2.44	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-12.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.0%	1.70	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+9.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.5%	4.87	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-11.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.5%	1.26	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+6.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.6%	2.10	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-12.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.4%	1.91	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+6.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crawley Town favoured against Shrewsbury

Our model makes Crawley Town 39% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 29% and Shrewsbury at 31%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Crawley Town against 1.08 for Shrewsbury — a slight edge to Crawley Town on expected output. A combined 2.32 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Crawley Town and Shrewsbury
Crawley Town		Shrewsbury
12	Played	14
2-3-7	W-D-L	5-3-6
0.75	Pts / game	1.29
1.08	Goals for / game	1.21
1.75	Goals against / game	1.57
50%	Over 2.5	50%
67%	BTTS	50%
8%	Clean sheets	21%
25%	Failed to score	29%
0-2-4	Home record	3-1-3
2-1-3	Away record	2-2-3
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crawley Town · Shrewsbury

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	14.6
5.8	Shots on target	5.6
3.8	Corners	6.3
1.80	Cards	3.29
12.2	Fouls	14.4
48	Possession %	47
1.39	xG	1.88
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	11.3
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
6.2	Corners	4.0
2.60	Cards	1.86
10.4	Fouls	12.7
52	Possession %	53
1.45	xG	1.31
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (3 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crawley Town	Metric	Shrewsbury
2.33 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
2.20 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.57
	Big chances
6.33 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
15.33 (better)	Total shots	10.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.20 (better)
50.3 (better)	Possession %	43.4
385 (better)	Passes	299
	Tackles
15.00 (better)	Fouls	16.60
3.33	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.67 (better)	Yellow cards	3.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crawley Town wins: 0
Draws: 1
Shrewsbury wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5