Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin

15th1–210th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cracovia Krakow		Motor Lublin
19	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	8
11	Corners	5
8	Fouls	8
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
387	Passes	373
52%	Possession %	48%
1.42	xG	2.04

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Cracovia Krakow 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.30

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.2%	1.43	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.4%	1.77	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.6%	2.29	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	+0.1
Match result	Cracovia Krakow	40.4%	2.47	2.32 Dafabet	43.1%	-2.7
Match result	Draw	26.6%	3.76	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-1.6
Match result	Motor Lublin	33.0%	3.03	3.35 Betano	29.9%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.7%	1.30	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.3%	4.30	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.0%	1.92	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.0%	2.08	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.8%	3.35	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cracovia Krakow favoured against Motor Lublin

Our model makes Cracovia Krakow 40% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 27% and Motor Lublin at 33%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Cracovia Krakow against 1.30 for Motor Lublin — a slight edge to Cracovia Krakow on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin
Cracovia Krakow		Motor Lublin
14	Played	14
3-3-8	W-D-L	5-4-5
0.86	Pts / game	1.36
1.14	Goals for / game	1.57
1.64	Goals against / game	1.71
64%	Over 2.5	71%
71%	BTTS	79%
14%	Clean sheets	14%
29%	Failed to score	14%
3-1-3	Home record	3-2-3
0-2-5	Away record	2-2-2
L3	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cracovia Krakow · Motor Lublin

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	24.4
5.0	Shots on target	8.8
5.6	Corners	7.2
3.20	Cards	3.20
14.8	Fouls	11.6
51	Possession %	57
1.67	xG	3.05
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6	Shots	10.2
6.2	Shots on target	3.8
3.6	Corners	4.6
1.80	Cards	3.00
12.2	Fouls	11.4
49	Possession %	43
1.33	xG	0.97
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cracovia Krakow	Metric	Motor Lublin
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.20	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.65	Expected goals (xG)	1.87 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
13.50	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	5.00 (better)
49.3	Possession %	53.4 (better)
408 (better)	Passes	402
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	13.20 (better)
0.50 (better)	Offsides	1.20
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cracovia Krakow wins: 0
Draws: 1
Motor Lublin wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin1–22026-10-30
Motor Lublin v Cracovia Krakow3–32026-05-16
Cracovia Krakow v Motor Lublin1–22025-11-22

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5