Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa

15th1–13rd

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cracovia Krakow		Legia Warszawa
14	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	3
21	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
451	Passes	424
52%	Possession %	48%
0.88	xG	0.66

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Legia Warszawa 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Legia Warszawa	46.9%	2.13	2.46 Dafabet	40.7%	+6.2
Match result	Cracovia Krakow	25.5%	3.92	2.85 Dafabet	35.1%	-9.6
Match result	Draw	27.7%	3.62	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.1%	1.41	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.9%	3.46	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.6%	2.24	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.4%	1.81	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.4%	4.27	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.6%	1.31	1.36 Betfair	73.5%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.3%	2.03	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.7%	1.97	2.10 William Hill	47.6%	+3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Legia Warszawa favoured against Cracovia Krakow

Our model makes Cracovia Krakow 25% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 28% and Legia Warszawa at 47%. The goal projection is 1.01 for Cracovia Krakow against 1.46 for Legia Warszawa — a clear edge to Legia Warszawa on expected output. A combined 2.46 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa
Cracovia Krakow		Legia Warszawa
14	Played	14
3-3-8	W-D-L	6-6-2
0.86	Pts / game	1.71
1.14	Goals for / game	1.79
1.64	Goals against / game	1.07
64%	Over 2.5	43%
71%	BTTS	71%
14%	Clean sheets	29%
29%	Failed to score	7%
3-1-3	Home record	3-2-2
0-2-5	Away record	3-4-0
L3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cracovia Krakow · Legia Warszawa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6	Shots	12.5
5.0	Shots on target	4.3
5.6	Corners	4.0
3.20	Cards	1.33
14.8	Fouls	12.7
51	Possession %	49
1.67	xG	1.11
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6	Shots	15.2
6.2	Shots on target	4.3
3.6	Corners	3.8
1.80	Cards	1.83
12.2	Fouls	15.3
49	Possession %	52
1.33	xG	1.59
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cracovia Krakow	Metric	Legia Warszawa
1.20	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.14	Expected goals (xG)	1.82 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
10.33	Total shots	11.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	3.33 (better)
46.7 (better)	Possession %	44.3
383 (better)	Passes	366
	Tackles
13.33	Fouls	13.33
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.33	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cracovia Krakow wins: 1
Draws: 1
Legia Warszawa wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa1–12026-10-17
Legia Warszawa v Cracovia Krakow1–02026-03-08
Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa2–12025-08-31

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5