Predicted Edge

Covadonga v Valladolid

Covadonga won 0 of the last 10–1Valladolid won 3 of the last 512th
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Covadonga 42%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCovadonga41.8%2.39———
Match resultDraw25.6%3.907.00 Betfair14.3%+11.4
Match resultValladolid32.5%3.071.22 Betano82.0%-49.4
Total goalsOver 1.579.5%1.261.15 Betano87.0%-7.4
Total goalsUnder 1.520.5%4.886.00 Betfair16.7%+3.8
Total goalsOver 2.556.0%1.791.50 Bet36566.7%-10.7
Total goalsUnder 2.544.0%2.272.63 Betfair38.0%+6.0
Total goalsOver 3.533.6%2.982.25 Betfair44.4%-10.8
Total goalsUnder 3.566.4%1.511.67 Betfair59.9%+6.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes59.4%1.692.20 Betfair45.5%+13.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No40.6%2.461.80 Betfair55.6%-14.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Covadonga favoured against Valladolid

Our model makes Covadonga 42% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Valladolid at 33%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Covadonga against 1.36 for Valladolid — a slight edge to Covadonga on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
1-2 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Covadonga and Valladolid
Covadonga Valladolid
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L5-3-5
0.00Pts / game1.38
0.00Goals for / game1.69
1.00Goals against / game1.54
0%Over 2.562%
0%BTTS62%
0%Clean sheets15%
100%Failed to score23%
0-0-1Home record4-0-2
0-0-0Away record1-3-3
L1StreakW2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Covadonga · Valladolid

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots14.9
—Shots on target7.0
—Corners5.9
—Cards3.50
—Fouls14.9
—Possession %48
—xG1.97
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots14.4
—Shots on target5.1
—Corners4.3
—Cards3.63
—Fouls14.0
—Possession %52
—xG1.77
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CovadongaMetricValladolid
2.80 (better)Goals scored2.60
1.20 (better)Goals conceded1.40
Expected goals (xG)3.00
Big chances
Shots on target6.40
Total shots14.60
Touches in opp. box
Corners6.20
Possession %49.6
Passes387
Tackles
Fouls15.80
Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards3.60
Red cards0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Covadonga wins
0
Draws
0
Valladolid wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%