Corvinul Hunedoara v 
Arges Pitesti
Match statistics
| Corvinul Hunedoara | Arges Pitesti | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 374 | Passes | 272 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 59%
- Over 2.5
- 31%
- Over 3.5
- 13%
- Both score
- 39%
- Model pick
- Corvinul Hunedoara 41%
- Likely score
- 1-0 15%
- Expected goals
- 1.10 – 0.84
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Arges Pitesti +0.25
Why this price?
Back Arges Pitesti +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Marathonbet — Arges Pitesti starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.02. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Corvinul Hunedoara 1.10, Arges Pitesti 0.85.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Corvinul Hunedoara | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | -2.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 32.3% | 3.10 | 3.25 Betfair | 30.8% | +1.5 |
| Match result | Arges Pitesti | 27.1% | 3.70 | 3.80 William Hill | 26.3% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.39 Betano | 71.9% | -13.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +10.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 30.9% | 3.23 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -14.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +11.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 13.4% | 7.48 | 4.33 BetVictor | 23.1% | -9.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 86.6% | 1.15 | 1.28 Betano | 78.1% | +8.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.91 Betano | 52.4% | +8.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Corvinul Hunedoara favoured against Arges Pitesti
Our model makes Corvinul Hunedoara 41% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 32% and Arges Pitesti at 27%. The goal projection is 1.10 for Corvinul Hunedoara against 0.84 for Arges Pitesti — a clear edge to Corvinul Hunedoara on expected output. A combined 1.95 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-0 15%
- 0-0 15%
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 2-0 9%
This season
| Corvinul Hunedoara | Arges Pitesti | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-4-5 | W-D-L | 4-3-8 |
| 1.47 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.13 | Goals for / game | 0.67 |
| 1.07 | Goals against / game | 1.13 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 20% |
| 27% | BTTS | 33% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 47% | Failed to score | 47% |
| 4-2-2 | Home record | 3-2-3 |
| 2-2-3 | Away record | 1-1-5 |
| W2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Corvinul Hunedoara · Arges Pitesti
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 14.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 3.20 |
| 15.3 | Fouls | 14.8 |
| 51 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.74 | xG | 1.74 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 14.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.7 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.83 | Cards | 1.73 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 50 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.49 | xG | 1.42 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Corvinul Hunedoara | Metric | Arges Pitesti |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.33 |
| 17.25 (better) | Total shots | 16.67 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.50 (better) | Corners | 6.00 |
| 51.5 (better) | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 398 (better) | Passes | 332 |
| Tackles | ||
| 17.75 | Fouls | 13.00 (better) |
| 1.33 (better) | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 | Yellow cards | 2.67 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Corvinul Hunedoara wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Arges Pitesti wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Corvinul Hunedoara v Arges Pitesti2–02026-10-31
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |