Cordoba v Eibar

11th2–04th

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cordoba		Eibar
23	Shots	14
11	Shots on target	4
16	Corners	3
13	Fouls	7
5	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	3
457	Passes	334
58%	Possession %	42%
2.56	xG	1.68

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Eibar 51%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.87

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Cordoba -0.75

2.50BetVictor · fair 2.26 · qualifies at 2.33+ · 1.77u

Why this price?

Back Cordoba -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with BetVictor — Cordoba must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 19% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.26. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.77 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cordoba 1.26, Eibar 1.87.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cordoba	25.2%	3.96	2.20 Betano	45.5%	-20.2
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.23	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	-3.4
Match result	Eibar	51.1%	1.96	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.4%	1.21	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-0.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.6%	5.69	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-2.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.5%	1.65	1.65 BetVictor	60.6%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.5%	2.53	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-3.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.1%	2.62	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.9%	1.62	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-2.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.1%	1.64	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.9%	2.57	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+0.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eibar favoured against Cordoba

Our model makes Cordoba 25% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 24% and Eibar at 51%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Cordoba against 1.87 for Eibar — a substantial edge to Eibar on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Cordoba and Eibar
Cordoba		Eibar
13	Played	12
6-1-6	W-D-L	7-2-3
1.46	Pts / game	1.92
1.69	Goals for / game	1.75
1.69	Goals against / game	1.17
77%	Over 2.5	58%
69%	BTTS	58%
23%	Clean sheets	33%
8%	Failed to score	8%
4-0-2	Home record	3-2-1
2-1-4	Away record	4-0-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cordoba · Eibar

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	15.2
6.0	Shots on target	5.3
7.7	Corners	4.0
3.43	Cards	1.67
15.6	Fouls	10.0
56	Possession %	51
1.65	xG	1.69
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	16.8
4.4	Shots on target	6.2
4.6	Corners	7.2
3.14	Cards	4.33
12.3	Fouls	13.3
44	Possession %	50
1.81	xG	1.88
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cordoba	Metric	Eibar
1.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.37 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.31
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
15.40 (better)	Total shots	12.80
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	2.80
57.2 (better)	Possession %	45.4
441 (better)	Passes	403
	Tackles
17.40	Fouls	11.80 (better)
2.20	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
4.00	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cordoba wins: 1
Draws: 1
Eibar wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Cordoba v Eibar2–02026-10-24
Eibar v Cordoba2–02026-05-24
Cordoba v Eibar0–02025-12-13

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5