Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC

11th3–022nd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cordoba		AD Ceuta FC
14	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
11	Corners	5
19	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
387	Passes	349
53%	Possession %	47%
1.34	xG	1.87

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Cordoba 52%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.99 – 1.33

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Cordoba -0.75

1.65Bet365 · fair 1.49 · qualifies at 1.53+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Cordoba -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Cordoba must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.49. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cordoba 1.99, AD Ceuta FC 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cordoba	52.2%	1.92	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-12.4
Match result	Draw	22.7%	4.41	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	+1.9
Match result	AD Ceuta FC	25.1%	3.98	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.62	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.82	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.5%	2.36	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.5%	1.74	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.1%	1.56	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.9%	2.78	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cordoba favoured against AD Ceuta FC

Our model makes Cordoba 52% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 23% and AD Ceuta FC at 25%. The goal projection is 1.99 for Cordoba against 1.33 for AD Ceuta FC — a substantial edge to Cordoba on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 7%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba		AD Ceuta FC
13	Played	13
6-1-6	W-D-L	1-2-10
1.46	Pts / game	0.38
1.69	Goals for / game	0.77
1.69	Goals against / game	2.31
77%	Over 2.5	62%
69%	BTTS	62%
23%	Clean sheets	0%
8%	Failed to score	38%
4-0-2	Home record	1-1-5
2-1-4	Away record	0-1-5
W1	Streak	L5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cordoba · AD Ceuta FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	18.3
6.0	Shots on target	5.1
7.7	Corners	7.1
3.43	Cards	3.13
15.6	Fouls	12.4
56	Possession %	53
1.65	xG	1.99
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	12.5
4.4	Shots on target	5.3
4.6	Corners	3.8
3.14	Cards	3.50
12.3	Fouls	18.5
44	Possession %	47
1.81	xG	1.99
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cordoba	Metric	AD Ceuta FC
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.35	Expected goals (xG)	2.54 (better)
	Big chances
6.50 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
18.00	Total shots	20.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.75	Corners	8.25 (better)
56.8 (better)	Possession %	54.0
455 (better)	Passes	417
	Tackles
15.25	Fouls	11.25 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.50	Yellow cards	2.75 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cordoba wins: 2
Draws: 0
AD Ceuta FC wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC3–02026-11-07
AD Ceuta FC v Cordoba3–22026-02-25
Cordoba v AD Ceuta FC2–02025-11-02

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5