Conquense v Castellón

0–32nd

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Conquense		Castellón
—	Shots	—
—	Shots on target	—
—	Corners	—
—	Fouls	—
1	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	1
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
—	Possession %	—
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Castellón 54%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.87

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Conquense	22.7%	4.41	5.40 Dafabet	18.5%	+4.2
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.23	4.10 Dafabet	24.4%	-0.8
Match result	Castellón	53.7%	1.86	1.70 Dafabet	58.8%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.8%	1.24	1.32 BetVictor	75.8%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.2%	5.21	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.0%	1.73	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	+5.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.0%	2.38	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-10.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.6%	2.81	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.4%	1.55	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.2%	1.72	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.8%	2.39	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Castellón favoured against Conquense

Our model makes Conquense 23% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and Castellón at 54%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Conquense against 1.87 for Castellón — a substantial edge to Castellón on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 9%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Conquense and Castellón
Conquense		Castellón
1	Played	12
0-0-1	W-D-L	8-3-1
0.00	Pts / game	2.25
0.00	Goals for / game	1.92
3.00	Goals against / game	0.42
100%	Over 2.5	42%
0%	BTTS	33%
0%	Clean sheets	58%
100%	Failed to score	17%
0-0-1	Home record	3-2-0
0-0-0	Away record	5-1-1
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Conquense · Castellón

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—	Shots	13.0
—	Shots on target	4.3
—	Corners	3.8
2.00	Cards	2.14
—	Fouls	11.3
—	Possession %	59
—	xG	1.31
1 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—	Shots	11.0
—	Shots on target	3.7
—	Corners	3.7
3.00	Cards	3.86
—	Fouls	15.8
—	Possession %	41
—	xG	0.98
1 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Conquense	Metric	Castellón
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	2.20
1.20	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.71
	Big chances
	Shots on target	4.80
	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	4.00
	Possession %	62.2
	Passes	571
	Tackles
	Fouls	11.40
	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.00
	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Conquense wins: 0
Draws: 0
Castellón wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Conquense v Castellón0–32026-10-29