Como v AS Roma

5th0–03rd

10:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Como		AS Roma
19	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	2
9	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1
0	Offsides	3
674	Passes	344
66%	Possession %	34%
1.49	xG	1.12

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Como 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Como	37.5%	2.67	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-0.6
Match result	Draw	26.3%	3.81	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-0.8
Match result	AS Roma	36.3%	2.76	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.57	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+1.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.9%	1.85	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.1%	2.17	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+3.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.6%	3.16	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.4%	1.46	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.72	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Como v AS Roma: too close to call

Our model makes Como 37% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 26% and AS Roma at 36%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Como against 1.41 for AS Roma — almost nothing to Como on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Como and AS Roma
Como		AS Roma
11	Played	11
7-2-2	W-D-L	8-3-0
2.09	Pts / game	2.45
1.64	Goals for / game	2.82
0.91	Goals against / game	0.91
45%	Over 2.5	73%
55%	BTTS	45%
27%	Clean sheets	55%
27%	Failed to score	9%
3-1-0	Home record	5-1-0
4-1-2	Away record	3-2-0
L1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Como · AS Roma

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.4	Shots	17.8
5.4	Shots on target	5.8
6.5	Corners	6.6
1.38	Cards	2.04
8.1	Fouls	11.0
62	Possession %	55
1.75	xG	2.19
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	13.4
3.6	Shots on target	4.8
4.8	Corners	3.8
1.95	Cards	1.38
11.0	Fouls	8.5
38	Possession %	46
1.26	xG	1.64
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Como	Metric	AS Roma
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	2.20
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.98	Expected goals (xG)	2.44 (better)
	Big chances
7.20 (better)	Shots on target	6.00
22.20 (better)	Total shots	18.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	6.00
59.6 (better)	Possession %	57.0
580 (better)	Passes	562
	Tackles
7.40 (better)	Fouls	13.80
2.60 (better)	Offsides	3.60
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Como wins: 1
Draws: 1
AS Roma wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Como v AS Roma0–02026-10-11
Como v AS Roma2–12026-03-15
AS Roma v Como1–02025-12-15

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5