Colchester v Exeter City

23rd0–012th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Colchester		Exeter City
18	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	1
5	Corners	2
16	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
399	Passes	364
52%	Possession %	48%
1.22	xG	0.30

Over 1.5: 64%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Colchester 44%
Likely score: 1-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 0.91

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Colchester	44.0%	2.27	2.15 BetVictor	46.5%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	30.1%	3.33	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+2.3
Match result	Exeter City	26.0%	3.85	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.5%	1.55	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.5%	2.81	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	36.9%	2.71	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-11.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	63.1%	1.58	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+9.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.5%	5.72	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.5%	1.21	1.33 Betfair	75.2%	+7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.4%	2.30	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-12.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.6%	1.77	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+9.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Colchester favoured against Exeter City

Our model makes Colchester 44% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Exeter City at 26%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Colchester against 0.91 for Exeter City — a clear edge to Colchester on expected output. A combined 2.17 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 14%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 12%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Colchester and Exeter City
Colchester		Exeter City
13	Played	14
2-6-5	W-D-L	5-4-5
0.92	Pts / game	1.36
0.92	Goals for / game	0.79
1.46	Goals against / game	0.64
38%	Over 2.5	21%
62%	BTTS	29%
15%	Clean sheets	50%
31%	Failed to score	43%
2-3-1	Home record	4-3-0
0-3-4	Away record	1-1-5
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Colchester · Exeter City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	11.4
3.3	Shots on target	3.6
4.5	Corners	4.1
1.50	Cards	1.57
15.0	Fouls	10.0
54	Possession %	50
1.29	xG	1.12
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	13.4
4.8	Shots on target	3.1
5.8	Corners	4.9
2.17	Cards	1.71
13.2	Fouls	13.7
46	Possession %	50
1.42	xG	1.19
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Colchester	Metric	Exeter City
1.25 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.75	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.00
	Big chances
2.50	Shots on target	5.40 (better)
9.00	Total shots	11.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.40 (better)
48.8	Possession %	51.2 (better)
404 (better)	Passes	343
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	13.00 (better)
1.50 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Colchester wins: 0
Draws: 1
Exeter City wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Colchester v Exeter City0–02026-10-17

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5