Club America v 
Club Tijuana
Match statistics
| Club America | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 616 | Passes | 237 |
| 72% | Possession % | 28% |
| 1.62 | xG | 0.47 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 59%
- Model pick
- Club America 53%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.88 – 1.19
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Club America -0.75
Why this price?
Back Club America -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.56 with Marathonbet — Club America must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.56 implies only 64%, so the price is 5.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Club America 1.88, Club Tijuana 1.19.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Club America | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -10.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.5% | 4.25 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +3.5 |
| Match result | Club Tijuana | 23.4% | 4.28 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +9.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -2.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.4% | 5.44 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | +0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.8% | 2.71 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | -4.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -1.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club America favoured against Club Tijuana
Our model makes Club America 53% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 24% and Club Tijuana at 23%. The goal projection is 1.88 for Club America against 1.19 for Club Tijuana — a substantial edge to Club America on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 1-2 6%
This season
| Club America | Club Tijuana | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Played | 16 |
| 8-6-2 | W-D-L | 5-7-4 |
| 1.88 | Pts / game | 1.38 |
| 2.38 | Goals for / game | 1.56 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 1.38 |
| 69% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 75% | BTTS | 63% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 3-4-1 | Home record | 5-1-2 |
| 5-2-1 | Away record | 0-6-2 |
| D3 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club America · Club Tijuana
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.5 | Shots | 12.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 39 |
| 2.03 | xG | 1.44 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 14.3 | Shots | 19.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 8.6 |
| 3.13 | Cards | 2.22 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 46 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.44 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Club America | Metric | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.26 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| Big chances | ||
| 9.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.80 |
| 16.33 (better) | Total shots | 15.60 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.33 | Corners | 7.40 (better) |
| 50.3 (better) | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 388 (better) | Passes | 349 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 | Fouls | 8.00 (better) |
| 0.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.33 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Club America wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Club Tijuana wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Club America v Club Tijuana1–12026-10-29
- Club Tijuana v Club America0–02026-01-10
- Club America v Club Tijuana3–12025-07-17
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 16 | Puebla won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |