Clermont Foot v Guingamp

15th0–211th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Clermont Foot		Guingamp
9	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	7
2	Corners	4
16	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
650	Passes	357
64%	Possession %	36%
0.66	xG	1.40

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Guingamp 36%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.26

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Guingamp +0.25

1.96Marathonbet · fair 1.78 · qualifies at 1.83+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Guingamp +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.96 with Marathonbet — Guingamp starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.96 implies only 51%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Clermont Foot 1.26, Guingamp 1.26.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Clermont Foot	35.8%	2.79	3.05 Betano	32.8%	+3.1
Match result	Draw	28.2%	3.55	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-1.3
Match result	Guingamp	36.0%	2.78	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.3%	1.38	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.7%	3.61	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.9%	1.86	1.90 Betano	52.6%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.7%	4.05	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.3%	1.33	1.34 Betano	74.6%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.9%	1.93	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.1%	2.08	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Clermont Foot v Guingamp: too close to call

Our model makes Clermont Foot 36% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Guingamp at 36%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Clermont Foot against 1.26 for Guingamp — almost nothing to Guingamp on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Clermont Foot and Guingamp
Clermont Foot		Guingamp
12	Played	12
1-8-3	W-D-L	4-2-6
0.92	Pts / game	1.17
0.92	Goals for / game	1.33
1.25	Goals against / game	1.50
25%	Over 2.5	67%
58%	BTTS	50%
33%	Clean sheets	25%
33%	Failed to score	25%
1-4-2	Home record	3-1-2
0-4-1	Away record	1-1-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Clermont Foot · Guingamp

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.2	Shots	12.6
2.6	Shots on target	4.4
3.8	Corners	3.8
2.00	Cards	2.40
15.4	Fouls	12.6
53	Possession %	46
0.98	xG	1.32
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.8	Shots	14.6
6.2	Shots on target	4.0
5.0	Corners	5.0
2.00	Cards	1.60
17.8	Fouls	17.0
47	Possession %	54
1.71	xG	1.38
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Clermont Foot	Metric	Guingamp
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
9.75	Total shots	12.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.25
55.5 (better)	Possession %	47.5
540 (better)	Passes	430
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	12.25 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Clermont Foot wins: 2
Draws: 0
Guingamp wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5