Ciudad de Lucena won 0 of the last 1L0–1Rayo Majadahonda won 1 of the last 1W
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Ciudad de Lucena
Rayo Majadahonda
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Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
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Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
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Possession %
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xG
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34%
23%
43%
1 · Ciudad de LucenaXRayo Majadahonda · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Rayo Majadahonda 43%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.82
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Ciudad de Lucena
33.6%
2.97
3.40 Dafabet
29.4%
+4.2
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.27
3.95 Dafabet
25.3%
-1.9
Match result
Rayo Majadahonda
42.9%
2.33
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-4.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.9%
1.16
1.29 BetVictor
77.5%
+8.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.1%
7.10
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-12.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.2%
1.51
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—
—
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.8%
2.96
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-17.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.4%
2.25
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+13.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.6%
1.80
1.36 Betfair
73.5%
-17.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.2%
1.49
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+10.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.8%
3.05
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-13.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rayo Majadahonda favoured against Ciudad de Lucena
Our model makes Ciudad de Lucena 34% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 23% and Rayo Majadahonda at 43%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Ciudad de Lucena against 1.82 for Rayo Majadahonda — a slight edge to Rayo Majadahonda on expected output. A combined 3.41 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%
This season
Season records for Ciudad de Lucena and Rayo Majadahonda
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ciudad de Lucena
Metric
Rayo Majadahonda
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.40
0.80
Goals conceded
0.80
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Expected goals (xG)
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Big chances *
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—
Shots on target
—
—
Total shots
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—
Touches in opp. box *
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—
Corners
—
—
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Ciudad de Lucena v 
Rayo Majadahonda