Predicted Edge

Cieza v Granada CF

Cieza won 0 of the last 10–3Granada CF won 5 of the last 55th
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Granada CF 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCieza34.9%2.866.50 Betfair15.4%+19.5
Match resultDraw25.8%3.875.00 Dafabet20.0%+5.8
Match resultGranada CF39.3%2.551.52 Dafabet65.8%-26.5
Total goalsOver 1.579.4%1.261.23 BetVictor81.3%-1.9
Total goalsUnder 1.520.6%4.844.50 Betfair22.2%-1.6
Total goalsOver 2.555.8%1.791.70 Bet36558.8%-3.1
Total goalsUnder 2.544.2%2.262.15 Bet36546.5%-2.3
Total goalsOver 3.533.4%3.002.70 Betfair37.0%-3.7
Total goalsUnder 3.566.6%1.501.44 Bet36569.4%-2.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes59.4%1.681.91 Bet36552.4%+7.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No40.6%2.461.95 William Hill51.3%-10.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cieza v Granada CF: too close to call

Our model makes Cieza 35% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Granada CF at 39%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Cieza against 1.51 for Granada CF — almost nothing to Granada CF on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
0-1 8%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Cieza and Granada CF
Cieza Granada CF
1Played12
0-0-1W-D-L7-2-3
0.00Pts / game1.92
0.00Goals for / game1.67
3.00Goals against / game1.17
100%Over 2.550%
0%BTTS50%
0%Clean sheets42%
100%Failed to score17%
0-0-1Home record3-1-1
0-0-0Away record4-1-2
L1StreakW5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cieza · Granada CF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots14.7
—Shots on target4.6
—Corners4.9
—Cards1.86
—Fouls11.6
—Possession %49
—xG1.42
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots14.6
—Shots on target6.3
—Corners4.1
—Cards3.74
—Fouls15.6
—Possession %51
—xG0.86
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CiezaMetricGranada CF
2.00Goals scored2.00
0.75 (better)Goals conceded1.60
Expected goals (xG)2.30
Big chances
Shots on target4.40
Total shots17.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners5.80
Possession %52.0
Passes409
Tackles
Fouls11.40
Offsides2.60
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.20
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Cieza wins
0
Draws
0
Granada CF wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%