Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5WDDLD11th2–0Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5LLLLL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Qingdao Jonoon
18
Shots
12
8
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
8
11
Fouls
13
1
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
398
Passes
396
49%
Possession %
51%
—
xG
—
47%
27%
27%
1 · Chongqing Tongliang LongXQingdao Jonoon · 2
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Chongqing Tongliang Long 47%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Chongqing Tongliang Long
46.6%
2.14
1.28 Dafabet
78.1%
-31.5
Match result
Draw
26.7%
3.74
5.80 Dafabet
17.2%
+9.5
Match result
Qingdao Jonoon
26.6%
3.76
13.00 Bet365
7.7%
+18.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.34
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-7.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
25.7%
3.90
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
48.8%
2.05
1.62 Betfair
61.7%
-13.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
51.2%
1.95
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+9.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
26.9%
3.71
2.75 Betfair
36.4%
-9.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.37
1.53 Betano
65.4%
+7.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.7%
1.90
2.25 BetVictor
44.4%
+8.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.3%
2.12
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-10.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Chongqing Tongliang Long favoured against Qingdao Jonoon
Our model makes Chongqing Tongliang Long 47% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Qingdao Jonoon at 27%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.10 for Qingdao Jonoon — a clear edge to Chongqing Tongliang Long on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
2-0 8%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Chongqing Tongliang Long and Qingdao Jonoon
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Metric
Qingdao Jonoon
0.60
Goals scored
0.80 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
3.00
0.38
Expected goals (xG)
1.61 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.25
Shots on target
3.80 (better)
10.00
Total shots
14.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
3.80
47.3 (better)
Possession %
41.6
402 (better)
Passes
329
—
Tackles
—
14.25
Fouls
12.80 (better)
0.75 (better)
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.60
—
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Chongqing Tongliang Long v 
Qingdao Jonoon