Chesterfield v 
Colchester
Match statistics
| Chesterfield | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 3 |
| 586 | Passes | 356 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 2.23 | xG | 0.72 |
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Over 3.5
- 22%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Chesterfield 45%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.39 – 1.02
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.30 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 57% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 9.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.77 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Chesterfield 1.39, Colchester 1.02.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 51.5% | 1.94 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +6.0 |
| Match result | Chesterfield | 44.7% | 2.24 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -17.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.3% | 3.53 | 4.33 Betfair | 23.1% | +5.2 |
| Match result | Colchester | 27.0% | 3.71 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | +8.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -12.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.32 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +10.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.65 Bet365 | 60.6% | -17.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 2.30 Bet365 | 43.5% | +13.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 22.2% | 4.51 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -15.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +12.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | -9.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Chesterfield favoured against Colchester
Our model makes Chesterfield 45% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 28% and Colchester at 27%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Chesterfield against 1.02 for Colchester — a clear edge to Chesterfield on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
This season
| Chesterfield | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 13 |
| 5-4-5 | W-D-L | 2-6-5 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 0.92 |
| 1.71 | Goals for / game | 0.92 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.46 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 38% |
| 71% | BTTS | 62% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 2-3-1 |
| 2-1-4 | Away record | 0-3-4 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chesterfield · Colchester
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.3 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 7.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 9.1 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 65 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.46 | xG | 1.29 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 8.4 | Shots | 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 2.3 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.43 | Cards | 2.17 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 35 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.02 | xG | 1.42 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Chesterfield | Metric | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.75 |
| 3.09 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.73 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.00 |
| 22.20 (better) | Total shots | 10.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 58.8 (better) | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 505 (better) | Passes | 414 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 (better) | Fouls | 15.25 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Chesterfield wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Colchester wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Chesterfield v Colchester1–12026-10-20
- Chesterfield v Colchester3–02026-03-03
- Colchester v Chesterfield6–22025-10-04
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |