Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5LWWLL5th1–0Newport County won 2 of the last 5WLDDW14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Cheltenham
Newport County
6
Shots
15
1
Shots on target
2
1
Corners
5
12
Fouls
18
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
2
322
Passes
295
51%
Possession %
49%
1.38
xG
1.38
42%
25%
33%
1 · CheltenhamXNewport County · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Cheltenham 42%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.45
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Cheltenham
42.1%
2.38
2.55 Bet365
39.2%
+2.8
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.04
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
-3.8
Match result
Newport County
33.2%
3.01
3.05 Dafabet
32.8%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.2%
1.22
1.30 Betano
76.9%
+5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.8%
5.62
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-9.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.1%
1.66
1.98 Betano
50.5%
+9.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.9%
2.51
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-12.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.7%
2.65
3.30 BetVictor
30.3%
+7.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.3%
1.61
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-12.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.5%
1.60
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.5%
2.67
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-9.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cheltenham favoured against Newport County
Our model makes Cheltenham 42% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 25% and Newport County at 33%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Cheltenham against 1.45 for Newport County — a slight edge to Cheltenham on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cheltenham
Metric
Newport County
1.20
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.80
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
0.18
Expected goals (xG)
1.44 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.80
Shots on target
4.20 (better)
8.80
Total shots
11.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80 (better)
Corners
3.20
45.8 (better)
Possession %
34.8
388 (better)
Passes
262
—
Tackles
—
10.60 (better)
Fouls
12.40
2.40
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.60
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Cheltenham v 
Newport County