CFR 1907 Cluj v 
Universitatea Cluj
Match statistics
| CFR 1907 Cluj | Universitatea Cluj | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 303 | Passes | 485 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- CFR 1907 Cluj 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.55 – 1.28
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Over 2.5
Why this price?
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.20 with 10Bet — 3 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.55, Universitatea Cluj 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 3 of 5CFR 1907 Cluj
Why this price?
Back CFR 1907 Cluj to win at 2.40 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.27. The offered 2.40 implies only 42%, so the price is 5.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.04 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: CFR 1907 Cluj 1.55, Universitatea Cluj 1.28.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | CFR 1907 Cluj | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +8.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.84 | 3.70 Betano | 27.0% | -1.0 |
| Match result | Universitatea Cluj | 30.9% | 3.24 | 2.90 Betfair | 34.5% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.38 10Bet | 72.5% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | 4.80 Betfair | 20.8% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.86 | 2.20 10Bet | 45.5% | +8.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 4.00 10Bet | 25.0% | +6.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.50 Betano | 66.7% | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.85 10Bet | 54.1% | +3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +3.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
CFR 1907 Cluj favoured against Universitatea Cluj
Our model makes CFR 1907 Cluj 43% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 26% and Universitatea Cluj at 31%. The goal projection is 1.55 for CFR 1907 Cluj against 1.28 for Universitatea Cluj — a clear edge to CFR 1907 Cluj on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| CFR 1907 Cluj | Universitatea Cluj | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 5-4-6 | W-D-L | 8-2-5 |
| 1.27 | Pts / game | 1.73 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 1.73 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 1.33 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 73% |
| 53% | BTTS | 53% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 5-1-2 |
| 2-1-5 | Away record | 3-1-3 |
| D3 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. CFR 1907 Cluj · Universitatea Cluj
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.2 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 3.33 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 35 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.28 | xG | 1.47 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 21.5 | Shots | 14.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 6.7 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 9.5 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 65 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.77 | xG | 1.62 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| CFR 1907 Cluj | Metric | Universitatea Cluj |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 2.48 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.75 (better) | Shots on target | 5.25 |
| 15.25 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.75 | Corners | 5.50 (better) |
| 48.5 | Possession % | 57.5 (better) |
| 427 | Passes | 489 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 | Fouls | 9.75 (better) |
| 0.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.50 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- CFR 1907 Cluj wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Universitatea Cluj wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.40
- Over 2.5
- 80%
- Both score
- 80%
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Cluj1–32026-10-08
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Cluj1–02026-04-25
- Universitatea Cluj v CFR 1907 Cluj2–12026-03-16
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Cluj3–22026-02-07
- Universitatea Cluj v CFR 1907 Cluj2–22025-09-29
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |