CF Os Belenenses won 2 of the last 3DWW3–33–4 aetArouca won 3 of the last 5LWWWD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
CF Os Belenenses
Arouca
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Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
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Possession %
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xG
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40%
25%
34%
1 · CF Os BelenensesXArouca · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
62%
Model pick
CF Os Belenenses 40%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.46
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
CF Os Belenenses
40.3%
2.48
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+21.2
Match result
Draw
25.4%
3.94
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—
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Match result
Arouca
34.4%
2.91
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-29.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.4%
1.23
1.28 Bet365
78.1%
+3.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.6%
5.38
3.75 Bet365
26.7%
-8.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.7%
1.70
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
+6.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.3%
2.42
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-11.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
36.3%
2.75
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+5.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
63.7%
1.57
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-11.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.7%
1.62
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+9.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.3%
2.61
1.85 William Hill
54.1%
-15.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
CF Os Belenenses v Arouca: too close to call
Our model makes CF Os Belenenses 40% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 25% and Arouca at 34%. The goal projection is 1.59 for CF Os Belenenses against 1.46 for Arouca — a slight edge to CF Os Belenenses on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CF Os Belenenses
Metric
Arouca
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
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Expected goals (xG)
1.00
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Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
3.80
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Total shots
11.60
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Touches in opp. box *
—
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Corners
2.60
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Possession %
52.2
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Passes
463
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Tackles
—
—
Fouls
11.20
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Offsides
1.25
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Throw-ins *
—
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Yellow cards
2.20
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Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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CF Os Belenenses v 
Arouca