Cesena v 
Empoli
Match statistics
| Cesena | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 404 | Passes | 479 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 1.32 | xG | 0.62 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Cesena 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.32 – 1.24
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Cesena -0.5
Why this price?
Back Cesena -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.05 with Betano — Cesena must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 63%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.88. The offered 2.05 implies only 49%, so the price is 9.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Cesena 1.32, Empoli 1.24.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cesena | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.14 Dafabet | 46.7% | -8.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.50 Dafabet | 28.6% | -0.7 |
| Match result | Empoli | 34.1% | 2.93 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +9.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 2.05 Betano | 48.8% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | 3.60 BetVictor | 27.8% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.85 William Hill | 54.1% | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | -1.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cesena v Empoli: too close to call
Our model makes Cesena 38% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 28% and Empoli at 34%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Cesena against 1.24 for Empoli — almost nothing to Cesena on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-0 8%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Cesena | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 3-6-2 | W-D-L | 2-3-6 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 0.82 |
| 1.09 | Goals for / game | 1.09 |
| 1.27 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 36% | Over 2.5 | 55% |
| 73% | BTTS | 64% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 2-4-0 | Home record | 1-1-3 |
| 1-2-2 | Away record | 1-2-3 |
| W1 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cesena · Empoli
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.17 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 12.1 |
| 45 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.38 | xG | 1.19 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 19.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 55 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.28 | xG | 1.97 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Cesena | Metric | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.33 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.92 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 (better) | Shots on target | 2.60 |
| 15.00 (better) | Total shots | 11.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 47.8 (better) | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 430 (better) | Passes | 404 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.60 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 4.00 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 | Yellow cards | 1.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Cesena wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Empoli wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Cesena v Empoli2–12026-10-27
- Empoli v Cesena1–12026-02-28
- Cesena v Empoli0–12026-01-10
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +12 | 27 | Palermo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 23 | Modena won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ascoli | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 20 | Ascoli won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +4 | 19 | Mantova won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Hellas Verona | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +6 | 16 | Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 16 | Avellino won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Benevento won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Pisa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 16 | Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Cremonese won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 15 | Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 | Padova won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Cesena | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 15 | Cesena won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 | Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 | Arezzo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 | Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 10 | Carrarese won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 | Empoli won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 | Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 | Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5 |