Cesena v Avellino

13th1–16th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cesena		Avellino
18	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	5
14	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
327	Passes	540
38%	Possession %	62%
2.17	xG	1.19

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Cesena 37%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.33 – 1.29

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.2%	1.37	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.1%	1.85	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.9%	2.18	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+2.5
Match result	Cesena	37.2%	2.69	2.37 Betano	42.2%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.60	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-2.5
Match result	Avellino	35.0%	2.86	3.35 Betano	29.9%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.4%	1.34	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.6%	3.91	3.70 Betano	27.0%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.05	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.9%	3.72	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cesena v Avellino: too close to call

Our model makes Cesena 37% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 28% and Avellino at 35%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Cesena against 1.29 for Avellino — almost nothing to Cesena on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Cesena and Avellino
Cesena		Avellino
11	Played	11
3-6-2	W-D-L	4-4-3
1.36	Pts / game	1.45
1.09	Goals for / game	1.45
1.27	Goals against / game	1.00
36%	Over 2.5	36%
73%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	9%
2-4-0	Home record	3-1-2
1-2-2	Away record	1-3-1
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cesena · Avellino

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	16.7
3.7	Shots on target	4.7
4.5	Corners	5.2
2.17	Cards	1.67
12.5	Fouls	9.5
45	Possession %	54
1.38	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	14.5
4.8	Shots on target	3.8
5.5	Corners	4.8
1.67	Cards	1.67
10.0	Fouls	13.0
55	Possession %	46
1.28	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cesena	Metric	Avellino
1.20	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.95	Expected goals (xG)	1.41 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.40 (better)
12.80 (better)	Total shots	10.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	1.80
48.4 (better)	Possession %	42.8
439 (better)	Passes	373
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	11.60 (better)
3.80	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cesena wins: 1
Draws: 1
Avellino wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Cesena v Avellino1–12026-10-18
Avellino v Cesena3–12026-01-31
Cesena v Avellino3–02025-11-09

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5